It feels like the World Cup just ended, and yet somehow, some way, the Premier League is already back. England's top flight kicks off on Friday with defending champi—oops, I mean attacking champion; sorry Mikel—Arsenal taking on newly promoted Championship champion Coventry City in North London, before everyone else takes the field over the weekend. It's a quick turnaround after the six-week odyssey that ended with Donald Trump trying to insert himself in Spain's trophy celebration, but that's life in soccer's grossly bloated calendar. As someone who cares about player fitness and the quality of play, I'm concerned that this is going to be a messy season. As someone who misses watching games every weekend, I could not be more excited.
Fittingly, the Premier League itself is a real mess right now. Arsenal should feel confident about its chances to repeat, but there's no telling where any of the other 19 teams might finish. (OK, well, there's one team that will almost certainly finish 20th, but I'll get to that later.) There's been a ton of upheaval in England ahead of this season, and with the transfer window not closing until Sept. 1, more could be on the way.
With uncertainty thick in the air like London fog, rather than previewing every team one by one, it felt more prudent to take a wider look at the league. I've picked five storylines that will take center stage starting with Friday's season-opening kickoff. These aren't the only riveting plot lines to follow, but they are ones that will go a long way toward deciding who wins the title, who rises, who falls, and who ends up on their asses, covered in shame. Speaking of, let's start with that most volatile of positions, the new Premier League manager.
New Coaches, So Many New Coaches
The Premier League's Pep Guardiola era is finally over. We did it, everyone. The bald genius has dominated the managerial ranks in England since his appointment in 2016, but after 10 seasons, six titles, and one divorce while at Manchester City, he stepped down at the end of last season to spend time with his family.
In its wake, Guardiola's exit signaled a record-breaking summer of turnover across the Premier League. Nine of the 20 teams will have new coaches this season, with a 10th (Roberto De Zerbi's Tottenham) working under a manager who took over at the very end of last season. It's a brand new world for half of the league:
- Marco Rose (Bournemouth)
- Xabi Alonso (Chelsea)
- Pierre Sage (Crystal Palace)
- Álvaro Arbeloa (Fulham)
- Gary O'Neil (Ipswich Town)
- Andoni Iraola (Liverpool)
- Enzo Maresca (Manchester City)
- Matthias Jaissle (Newcastle United)
- Oliver Glasner (Nottingham Forest)
That's a lot! Three title contenders will hope to quickly mesh with new styles in order to keep pace with Arsenal, Ipswich Town will look to keep its Championship success going under O'Neil, and Bournemouth will try to replace Iraola's attacking chaos with Rose, whose underwhelming end to his Leipzig tenure might mask a brilliant attacking mind of his own. Maresca might have the toughest task of all in replacing Guardiola, and given his messy end at Chelsea, I'll be watching with glee to see if it all goes down in flames. (Similarly, I'm sure those who aren't Liverpool supporters will be excited to see if the Pool Boys missing out on Alonso and hiring from the mid-table will blow up in their faces, though after last season's performance under Arne Slot, I am cautiously optimistic, even with paper-thin depth across the squad.)
With so many sides going through adaptation periods at the start of the season, one can fully expect some shock results early on. While there is plenty of drama and potential across these new managerial appointments, I'm especially intrigued by one of these hirings in particular.
Glasner led Crystal Palace to a surprising run of success over the last two seasons, first winning the FA Cup in 2025, and then winning the Conference League last season. However, amid those triumphs, the union between Glasner and Palace never really looked like a happy one. It wasn't a huge surprise, then, when he announced in January that he would be leaving at the end of the season, citing disagreements over transfer policies as a main reason why.
Surely Glasner hoped to parlay that impressive stint with the Eagles into a bigger and better job, but instead he wound up landing at Nottingham Forest. The Tricky Trees only barely beat the drop last season, and had their own transfer drama at the start of the season. The club went through three managers in quick succession: Nuno Espírito Santo was the first to go, then Ange Postecoglou lasted about as long as expected, before Sean Dyche completed the trifecta, getting fired just shy of four months after getting hired. Vítor Pereira saw out the season and the survival, but he was let go in late June, just as pre-season preparation was wrapping up. In comes Glasner, who will have to navigate that minefield with a roster that only managed to stay up by the skin of its teeth. If Glasner succeeds here, he'll add to his already sterling résumé, but he's just as likely to be the first manager relieved of his duties this season. Good luck!
It's Arsenal's League To Lose
After three years of finishing so close yet so far from its first Premier League title since the Invincibles of 2003-04, Arsenal finally reached the mountaintop last season, winning the league by a comfortable seven points thanks to the best defense in England, as well as the second-best offense. While the season ended on a down note, with a penalty shootout loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final, Mikel Arteta's charges left 2025-26 with the major silverware the club had been craving for the past two decades.
Arsenal enters this campaign as the presumptive favorite, a clear tier above everyone else in title "contention." The Gunners bring back almost every key member of last year's title-winning side: Leandro Trossard is the only notable departure, though William Saliba will start the season on the sidelines with a back injury that might keep him out until the new year. Still, the side that blitzed the Premier League last season returns not only intact, but strengthened by some key additions at each area of the field.
The flashiest addition is Bruno Guimarães, the Brazilian do-it-all midfielder who joins from Newcastle. Bruno can play at any level of midfield, whether as a holding mid, a box-to-box shuttler, or even a well-rounded attacking midfielder. The Brazilian is exactly the type of midfielder Arsenal wants, capable of both terrorizing opposing attacks and creating opportunities himself.
Trossard's replacement comes in the form of Christos Tzolis, a Greek winger who starred in Belgium for Club Brugge last year. Tzolis is a hell of a playmaker; no one in Europe's top 10 leagues notched more assists than his 23 last season. And though it is not official at press time, reports say the Gunners have also picked up England international Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa for its defense. Konsa should slot in nicely as Saliba's injury replacement, and will likely also get some work at right back.
Of course, the summer did not go perfectly for Arsenal, as the club was quite seriously in for Real Madrid's Vinícius. That would have been a truly game-changing type of move, and the Brazilian would have instantly become the crown jewel in what was already a formidable attack. Alas, he might have just used Arsenal as leverage to secure a big contract from Real Madrid, and so Arsenal quietly moved on and bolstered the squad rather than raising its ceiling.
So, what can stop Arsenal from repeating? The new refereeing emphasis on set pieces might not help. Arsenal was the best set-piece team in the world last season, and their (infamously) physical approach in the box netted the Gunners some easy goals from corners and free kicks. If the refs start cracking down on that kind of behavior, Arsenal might miss what had been such a reliable weapon. Then again, less physical contact on set pieces might also work in Arsenal's favor; how does one stop Gabriel from getting on the end of Declan Rice crosses without being able to manhandle him at least a little? It'll be interesting to see how Arsenal adapts to the new rules, and how tight referees officiate every set piece from the champs.
There's also a more philosophical risk here: Now that the title has been won, will the hunger still be there to suffocate opponents across the entire season? Or will Arsenal shift gears and focus to the Champions League, a trophy it has never won? Arteta is, for whatever one might think of his defense-mindedness and his corniness, a mentality master, so you wouldn't count on focus being a problem. Nevertheless, repeating is difficult for anyone not named Manchester City. The last non-City side to do it in the Premier League was Manchester United in 2009. Arsenal is probably as well suited to do it as any club has been since then (non-City division), but it's not easy to keep the drive needed for 38 grueling games. But the competition is hardly fierce, and Arsenal might benefit from a unique combination of talent and consistency that no other title contender can match.
Who Is The Second Best Team?
Though we may not be in for the tightest of title races this year, the battle for the spot just below the Gunners should be fantastic. None of the presumptive challengers for the second spot on the table are quite as bulletproof as the reigning champions, which will likely make for a riveting melee for the other Champions League places. By my count, there are five real candidates and one wild card coasting on big moves and recent history more than any recent achievements. In fact, let's start there, with Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs have been horrendous domestically over the past two years. After finishing 17th in the league two seasons ago (albeit while also winning the Europa League), the club fired Ange Postecoglou and hired Thomas Frank, only to end up in the same exact spot on the table. Frank only lasted until February before he was fired and replaced by former Juventus manager Igor Tudor, who then was fired himself and replaced with Roberto De Zerbi at the end of March. De Zerbi didn't exactly lead Tottenham to glory in his brief time in the job, but he helped keep the club up, which was good enough. This summer, Tottenham has gone absolutely batshit in the transfer market, dropping a combined €267 million on Newcastle's Sandro Tonali, West Ham's Mateus Fernandes, and Brighton's Jan Paul van Hecke. And Spurs might not be done, as now there are reports that it is on the verge of a double move for Manchester City's Savinho and Omar Marmoush. It's impossible to gauge how all of this will come together, especially until the window closes officially, so I can't put Tottenham in this race for real, but I'm watching closely.
Outside of that, the five teams with dreams of second all have talent to boot and questions that might doom them on the way there. Let's go one-by-one in order of last year's table to try to figure out who is actually good enough to be the best of the rest.
- Manchester City: Despite serving as the constant in the league for a decade, City enters this season with tons of questions. How will they take to life after Guardiola? Who will actually suit up for City when the window closes? Will Elliot Anderson make good on his massive €135 million move from Nottingham Forest? Will the 115 charges ever lead to anything? This feels like a true transitional year for City, and if Maresca manages to see out the season in charge with something resembling success, then maybe we can talk about City as title challengers next year. For now, though, this feels like the first year since 2015-16 (the last before Guardiola) where City might finish outside of the top three.
- Manchester United: What a difference a year makes. Entering last season, United had a lame-duck manager in Ruben Amorim and a squad that made little sense on paper. The results bore out that feeling, and though it took until January, Amorim was finally fired and replaced on an interim basis by former Red Devil Michael Carrick. A funny thing happened after that: United started winning. From the time Carrick was appointed to the end of the season, no one collected more points than United, and the club beat Arsenal in North London for the first time since 2017. Now, Carrick has the top job permanently, and the club brought in Andrey Santos from Chelsea and Youri Tielemans from Villa to try to reshape its midfield into a strength behind assist king Bruno Fernandes. United still has question marks in both attack and defense, but it's clear that the club has a vision for its continued resurgence under Carrick.
- Aston Villa: Poor Villa might be a victim of its own success. After holding off Liverpool to finish fourth last season, Villa will now have to navigate a full Champions League schedule without two key contributors. First, as stated above, Tielemans moved over to Manchester United, robbing Villa of its steadiest midfield creator. The bigger loss, however, came from Morgan Rogers's €138 million mega-move to Chelsea, which means Villa will have to replace not just his 10 goals and six assists but also his gravitational pull that opened up more space for everyone else. The Villans did try to replace those outgoings with some splashy moves, bringing in Freiburg's Swiss wonderkid Johan Manzambi and relegated Wolverhampton midfielder João Gomes, but losing two of your best and most important players right before going into the Champions League crucible leaves Villa as my most likely candidate to drop out of the top five. (Last time Villa played in the Champions League two seasons ago, it finished sixth, and that sounds about right this time.)
- Liverpool: After a cursed season last year, Liverpool is looking to reload. Gone are Arne Slot, Andy Robertson, Curtis Jones, Ibrahima Konaté, and, most emotionally, Mohamed Salah. In comes Iraola, who is making the jump from sixth-place Bournemouth directly into the hellmouth at Anfield. Iraola is a great coach, as he's proven at both Rayo Vallecano in Spain and then at Dean Court for the Cherries. He'll have to work some magic here, though, as Liverpool is entering the season with a good-but-not-great starting XI and a whole bunch of question marks behind them. The depth is seriously concerning, and though the window isn't closed yet, time is running out for the Reds to fill out its squad. In fairness, the club has brought in two youngsters who look ready to contribute in huge roles from the start: Rennes center back Jérémy Jacquet looks immense even at the age of 20, and Osasuna's Víctor Muñoz is a hell of a player on the ball and in counters. If Liverpool can seal the long-rumored moves for one or both of PSG's Bradley Barcola and Ibrahim Mbaye, there will at least be enough talent in attack to make Iraola's system work, but there are still plenty of questions about the midfield (who plays beyond Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister, and Ryan Gravenberch?) and defense (will Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong be able to turn things around after dud debut seasons? Also, how screwed is this team if Virgil van Dijk keeps slowing down?). Liverpool has the most potential of these five teams, but for now, that potential is stalled out in transfer negotiations and health concerns. The Pool Boys could finish second, or they could finish ninth; I truly have no idea which seems more likely.
- Chelsea: It might be a bit generous to slot Chelsea in here after a 10th-place finish last season, but there are at least some intriguing developments at Stamford Bridge. The first and most visible one is that, after cycling through Maresca, Liam Rosenior, and two interim stints from the literally unqualified Callum McFarlane, Chelsea has a new manager in Xabi Alonso. While Alonso flamed out at Real Madrid due to a locker room revolt (the same revolt that led, at least indirectly, to the funniest soccer story of last season), there's a reason the former Bayern Leverkusen coach was held in such high esteem that he got another top job immediately after that mess. As is customary, Chelsea spent a metric ton of money this summer to give Alonso a more well-rounded squad, with Rogers headlining the group. Maybe just as impactful, though, will be the dual defensive signings of Crystal Palace's Maxence Lacroix and Atalanta's Marco Palestra for a combined €112 million. While Enzo Fernández might still be sold to Manchester City, this is a deep squad in need of some direction. Making the jump from 10th to second is incredibly hard, and Chelsea will have to come together under a new manager extremely quickly, but stranger things have happened. At the very least, Chelsea should be a lot more interesting to watch than last season, and that has to count for something.
Which Mid-Table Team Will Ascend?
Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Brentford—all of these sides have, in recent years, made a pretty sizable jump from the bottom half of the table into European contention through cunning recruitment, good management, and, of course, star-making player performances. While not all four of those will remain atop their lofty perches this coming season (for starters, Aston Villa might struggle with balancing that Champions League workload, and Bournemouth just lost its manager), there's a different atmosphere at a club that makes the leap even once. Expectations soar, as do hopes that the club has become one of the fabled "best of the rest," below the uber-wealthy sides that typically make up the top third of the table.
Who will join those four clubs in making that leap this year, if any? I believe there are two prime candidates, albeit with different aspirations and ceilings. Leeds United is in a great spot here. After a hellacious start to last season, one that almost cost Daniel Farke his managerial job, a mid-season swap of formation saved Leeds's season and, perhaps, changed the trajectory of the club. Leeds was a machine in the second half of the year, climbing to a respectable 14th when relegation had looked a certainty before the New Year. Now, with a foothold heading into the club's second season of this current EPL stint, Leeds appears to be going for it. The summer wasn't a prolific one in the transfer market, but two big moves should help its climb up the table. First, Leeds went shopping in Italy, grabbing center back Tarik Muharemovic from Sassuolo for €37 million. To further strengthen the defense, Leeds then splashed €47 million on James Trafford, who had joined Manchester City thinking he might nab the starting spot only to be relegated to the bench after the club signed Gianluigi Donnarumma. Signing winger Harry Wilson should also provide Dominic Calvert-Lewin with the kind of service he thrives on, provided the striker can stay healthy. These are the types of big-ticket moves that a club not happy with 14th makes. Aiming for Europe might be too bold a goal, but Leeds's resurrection last season has it on the upswing.
However, the best candidate to make the leap into European contention would be—and trust me when I say it pains me to say this as a Liverpool fan—the Toffees of Everton. Assuming the club can keep Iliman Ndiaye, last season's 13th-placed finishers should be significantly better in attack with the additions of Brennan Johnson (from Crystal Palace), Merlin Röhl (Freiburg), and Tyrique George (Chelsea). As long as the club doesn't go on a horrible late-season swoon again (no wins after March 21st, when it had been dancing up near the Champions League places), there's enough talent here to make a considerable push up the table in the second season at new stadium Hill Dickinson. The only remaining question mark is at right back, where Everton must finally replace the eternal Seamus Coleman, who finally left the club after 17 seasons. There's still time in the transfer window, and any sort of incoming right back would make me feel even more confident that Everton will finish in a single-digit place.
I asked Defector's Everton sicko Tom Ley for his take, which I present with no comment: "If Everton's dispiriting finish to last season's campaign carries into the start of this one, be ready for the axe to fall on David Moyes. Despite being a club legend and keeping the Toffees out of the relegation scrap since returning in the middle of the 2024-25 season, his transfer choices and stubbornness in developing young players have started to eat away at the patience of the fanbase, and he's yet to have his contract extended beyond this season. That's the downside to executing the kind of successful rescue mission that Moyes has over the last few years—eventually you run into some real expectations."
Which Freshly Promoted Side(s) Will Yo-Yo?
Now we've reached the place no one wants to be. Three sides are going down, relegated back to the gladiatorial arena that is the Championship. But which ones will it be? The safest bet is to pencil in each of the three freshly promoted sides for an immediate return trip back down. That was how things shook out in both 2024 and 2025, after all. Last year was a bit different, as the top division cleared out some of its long-running underperformers from the bottom of the table: Burnley did the yo-yo, but both Leeds and Sunderland not only survived but actually did much better than expected. The former finished 14th and eight full points safe from relegation, while the latter did a madness by finishing seventh, qualifying for the Europa League after flirting with the Champions League for longer than anyone could have dreamed. It rocked.
Will this be a year like last year, where the promoted sides look better than anyone would think and achieve survival? Or will it be like the two years prior, and we'll see Coventry City, Hull City, and Ipswich Town in the Championship again next season? I think the answer will be somewhere in the middle.
Starting with the worst team in the Premier League by a number of metrics, I do think Hull City, winners of the Championship promotion playoff, will be one-and-done. The Tigers were not particularly good even in the Championship last year; xG hated the side, as Hull finished with the third-worst xG difference (xG for minus xG against) in the entire second division. Hull basically went up because its players put a limited number of shots on target at unsustainable rates for an entire season: no one hit more of their shots on target (37 percent) and only Coventry City scored more goals per shot taken. In short, Hull achieving promotion was a statistical anomaly, helped along by Oli McBurnie's 19 league goals.
Ipswich and Coventry should fare better, though. Ipswich is back in the Premier League after a year away. Last season's Ipswich was not as dominant as the team that got promoted to the Premier League in 2023-24, and it only clinched automatic promotion on the final day. Unlike the last go-around, though, Ipswich spent a lot of money this summer, and on some good players, including Paraguayan breakout candidate Julio Enciso, who was just purchased this week from Strasbourg. Ipswich appears to have learned the lesson that the Premier League teaches everyone (spend money to make money), and while the club should find itself in the relegation scrap, it would not be a shock if it stays up.
Coventry City staying up would also not be a surprise. Frank Lampard's side scored for fun in the Championship (97 goals, the most in the division) and walked away with the title. Some good, potential-laden recruits came in this summer, with ex-Brighton goalkeeper Carl Rushworth leading the pack; the goalie's permanent move to Coventry after a loan last year will solidify the net for the Championship's best defense. Lampard hasn't had the absolute smoothest transition to management in his career, with high-profile flameouts at Chelsea and Everton, but at Coventry, he has found a side he can mold into an efficient machine. I give the Sky Blues the best chance to finish in safety of the three new sides, and more than that, I think Coventry might end up being a sneaky amount of fun to watch along the way.
