There's been a lot of clamoring for answers as to what happened in the fourth quarter of Sunday's unusually messy divisional matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings. And yet for much of the game, and even into the fourth quarter, there was very little in terms of unanswered questions. When Trey Smack kicked a field goal to stretch Green Bay's lead to eight with 13:17 remaining in the fourth, all the juice was on the Packers' side and the game was, honestly, a little boring.
But the Vikings had jumped offside on the play, which made fourth-and-6 into fourth-and-1. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur weighed his options and decided Fuck those points, opting to drive the nail into the coffin instead. Jordan Love got stuffed on the ensuing play, and the Packers never scored again. This is notable because the Vikings immediately went on a 22-point scoring run, and won by a final score of 39-22.
Is it as simple as the Vikings finding a new gear in the fourth? The Packers and their analytics darling QB sputtering to a halt? Momentum plays? Those dastardly refs doing more of their ref chicanery against your favorite team, which is also their most mortal enemy?
These are the kinds of questions people tend to ask when a team completely, inexplicably shits the bed. They are also ones that Packers fans have had to ask a lot, because LaFleur has a lot of experience fielding teams that inexplicably shit the bed in more or less this way. They were outscored in similar fashion by the Chicago Bears in the playoffs last year, then began this year with the same type of collapse that ended their previous one. And while it's upsetting to watch defensive stops and a huge turnover in the end zone wiped away by penalties, both of which happened to Green Bay in the fourth, that's not the story, here. Acting like the refs helped the Vikings score 22 points in a fourth quarter is just a massive amount of cope. At the very least, the Packers were involved with all that, too.
The truth is Green Bay played well enough overall. Love threw for two touchdowns and 389 yards, the Vikings offense was largely stymied before and after QB Kyler Murray left the game with a concussion, and Green Bay led by 20 well into the third quarter. But they couldn't finish, and the Minnesota defense eventually wore Love down with its high pass-rush win rate and multiple sacks. And after Murray left the game, backup Carson Wentz was able to do what J.J. McCarthy couldn't and get the ball to Justin Jefferson. It was a classic collapse, and the whispers around LaFleur will reach a higher pitch after what is now a sixth straight loss dating back to last season.
Speaking as someone who has followed the Baltimore Ravens throughout coach John Harbaugh's tenure there, I can recognize the tendencies of a team that keeps collapsing in new and inventive ways. When I tell you that the Packers should have kicked that fourth-quarter field goal it isn't because of some grunt coach, anti-analytics, take-the-points reason. It's more that they should have done it because, if you don't get that first down for whatever reason, it will pretty much seal your fate for the game.
That's a lot to put onto one short-yardage outcome, but the moment Love got stuffed it became predictable that the Packers would lose. LaFleur wants his team to be aggressive, but being aggressive and bad does not make you admirable. And LaFleur, for all his offensive whiz-kid bona fides, does not always have a good feel for how a game is going, and how and when to get out of his own way instead of showing off how smart and gutsy he is.
Control freaks also tend to be tight asses, and LaFleur's team reflects that. But this ultimately isn't about coaching best practices or Vengeful Football Gods. It's about a team that is visibly out of ideas, and allowing 22 straight points—29, really—is the behavior of a team that's already crumbling. The Packers will probably still win 10 games again. They'll probably also blow it again in another playoff round.
