I was trying to puzzle out how to plagiarize my new podcast best friend while simultaneously filling in for him for this week’s Jamboroo, and for all my skill in stealing other people’s takes, I couldn’t figure out how to effectively disguise it.
So instead, I’ll build off what Drew wrote last week while referencing research someone else did. I was trying to see why teams are blitzing more this year, even setting aside blitz maven Brian Flores (his Vikings defense is currently blitzing at a mind-boggling 76.9 percent for the season, according to PFF) and former Flores assistant Daronte Jones, now defensive coordinator at Washington (the Commanders are second in blitz rate at 52.1 percent).
In 2026, it turns out that teams that already loved to blitz are the ones blitzing more—median and bottom-fifth percentile blitz rates have not increased by any amount over the last few seasons. But it still invites the question: Why are blitz-happy teams blitzing more?
Drew recounted some of it—if you’re good at it, the costs of blitzing are smaller than the gains generated by sending extra pass rushers at the dickhead throwing the ball against your team.
I thought that was enough of an explanation, but my good friend Trevor Sikkema (I have written negative stories about almost every company he has worked for) at the NFL Pro podcast brought something up last week that stuck in my mind:
When you look at the average width of a formation on offense in 2026, it's just 21.7 yards. Now, that used to be — back in 2016, this is just an example — 2016, it was 28.1 yards. That means, okay, where [is] the furthest or widest offensive player? So, an entire seven-plus yards inside where things sort of used to be. That shows that things aren't as spread out. They're getting more condensed. And the rise in 12 personnel, more heavy personnel, more tight ends on the field.
Why are teams comfortable blitzing more than they used to? Because fuck the Air Raid!
Or maybe, more precisely, the spread concepts that were so successful a decade ago are out of vogue because teams schemed them out (for all of Brandon Staley’s faults, his willingness as a DC to go extra light in the box helped spearhead the death of the Air Raid in the NFL).
Teams will still spread things out, but that’s no longer the dominant offense it once was. After all the hullabaloo the Rams received for being a heavy “13” personnel team—that is, one running back and three tight ends—the NFL has embraced it. But because tight ends aren’t as copy-paste as receivers are, teams are pretty careful about how exactly they use tight ends because some are atrocious at blocking but kick ass as receivers, while others are the opposite. Some move well laterally, others have raw downfield speed, some have agility, and others are stiff as a board. Some can block on the move while others are better inline, and so on.
Very few tight ends can consistently stretch defenses by formation; Brock Bowers (who can literally line up anywhere and perform) and Kyle Pitts are your wide alignment tight ends and there aren’t many more.
So, putting more tight ends on the field means condensing the formation. Tightening it. Clogging the lanes. Sphinctering up.
These tight ends are motioning across the formation, lining up at fullback, lining up as “sniffers” (I don’t choose these names), detached slots, inline ends, offset in pistol, whatever.
I’m not confident this is entirely well-supported; do we really need that many snaps for Johnny Mundt or Ben Sinnott? Can we honestly say Sam Roush has been a positive so far? Would Adam Trautman get snaps in a world without Sean Payton?
But, for the most part, it’s been a boon for offenses. While we’re not quite at the yards-per-play and scoring boom we saw from 2018–2020, per-drive scoring does seem to be up—though much of that might be the product of an explosive Week 1. Offenses are slower and there are fewer drives per game, but they are taking advantage of their opportunities.
Defenses are responding by loading the box; five-man front usage is at 34 percent, which is a jump of four percentage points in just one year. Prior to this year, it has never been higher than 31 percent.
And when you’ve got a bunch of guys on the field who do not particularly threaten you deep and might stay in to block or could signal a run, you blitz them and fuck up their intricately designed blocking angles before they can screw you up.
Offensively and defensively, these feel like high-risk, high-reward strategies. So, I searched online for a box plot creator because I didn’t know how to do it in Excel and saw that the spread of points scored per game through the first three weeks is quite a bit larger than we’re used to.
Right now, the four best teams in points per drive occupy either end of the spectrum, tight end-wise. San Francisco runs multiple tight ends near the lowest in the league at 22.1 percent and Dallas, second in points per drive, is right next to them at 22.6 percent.
At the other end, Buffalo (third place in points per drive) is nearly the top at 51.1 percent. Jacksonville ranks fourth in points per drive and ranks sixth in tight end usage (43.3 percent). Three of the four worst teams in this scoring metric also use tight ends the least.
None of this is a recommendation, it’s more an explanation. A lot of teams are scoring at either end of the spectrum and some teams that don’t have the horses to put tight ends out are not great overall.
We probably have to account for game script effects. You know why nerds don’t believe the stat that says you win the more you run the ball? It’s because teams that are ahead are going to run the ball a lot more in order to kill the clock-winning causes rushing attempts, not the other way around.
And you’re probably going to put more tight ends out there if you’re running the ball more. That’s not universal; the 49ers are running the fuck out of the ball and don’t need tight ends to do it. And though not everyone has Kyle Juszczyk, the same is true of Philadelphia—lots of runs, not a lot of tight ends.
Las Vegas is passing a shit ton and rank number one in tight end usage and only have had Brock Bowers healthy for one game. It’s not the same thing as running the ball with the lead, but it’s probably correlative.
When people say football is cyclical, they usually mean that passing is going to die down and teams are going to run the ball more. In small ways, this happens—rushing rates were higher in the middle of the 2010s than they are now—but they’re all pretty much in the 42 to 45 percent bandwidth they’ve been since 2009 and are probably not going to increase to 47 percent any time in the near future without radical rule changes.
There’s a reason rushing rates peaked (59.9 percent) in 1977, right before a bunch of rule changes made passing the ball easier and more efficient. They never got above 50 percent after 1983.
So people who envision a return to pre-2008 running levels are almost certainly barking up the wrong tree. But tactically, we’re seeing a lot of that cyclical stuff. The Tampa-2 died around 2011 and Cover 3 took over right after that. It wasn’t long until Vic Fangio’s Cover 6 stuff started becoming trendy, and stayed that way up until pretty recently.
Two-tight end sets were all the rage in the early 2010s when Rob Gronkowski and some random murderer were dominating the league with it, and then Sean McVay invented having three receivers and that took over the league. Then, the Rams invented using three tight ends, so we’re in this era of personnel.
I think that’s pretty neat!
The Games
All games in the Jamboroo are evaluated for sheer watchability on a scale of 1 to 5 Throwgasms.
Five Throwgasms
Broncos at 49ers: In the battle of quarterbacks I could be extremely wrong about (Bo Nix) and one I was definitely wrong about (Brock Purdy) give me the one who has confirmed that I’m awful at this job. The 49ers are wishcasting on hopes, prayers, duct tape, and an ungodly defiance of God’s will at a substation by being perhaps the most injured team in modern NFL history and putting up more goddamn points than anyone else while having an above-average defense. I’d say that we should put an asterisk on “ungodly” given Silicon Valley’s recent religious revival, but you don’t fucking believe that’s genuine, do you?
Rams at Eagles
Four Throwgasms
Jaguars at Bengals: Look, I know the Bengals shit the bed last week against the Steelers, who managed to dig deep and throw deep for the one game of the year they have the energy to do so. But the Bengals are talented on offense and defense and Joe Burrow has managed to avoid pocket pressure. And the Jaguars are kind of just good as hell. Trevor Lawrence looks like the guy he was promised to be, years after we were sick of hearing about how he was going to be that guy. Parker Washington rules. The Jaguars might be the second-best team in the league behind the 49ers? Is that right? Sure. Fuck yeah.
Chiefs at Raiders: I don’t know how or why, but something hilarious is going to happen in this game and we’re going to meme it forever. Maybe Kirk Cousins makes his case for Comeback Player of the Year over the current favorite, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders starting off 4-0 would set the stage for some truly irresponsible takes and some incredible football-guy hardo moments. I always knew Malcolm Koonce was going to break out this season. I was telling you all about Tre Tucker. Hezekiah Masses is underrated. These are all real people with real names (I looked it up!) having an incredible start to the season but shut up, man.
Three Throwgasms
Lions at Panthers: The Panthers are currently leading the division with a 1-2 record and everyone knows they kind of stink but hey, I always knew Jalen Coker was going to break out this season. I was telling people about Devin Lloyd. Will Lee is underrated. And the Lions are kind of a disaster insofar as we all expected them to be better, but also the Lions are going to be fine.
Jets at Bears: Hey, I, uh, think Aaron Glenn might be a good coach?
Colts at Commanders
Packers at Buccaneers
Two Throwgasms
Patriots at Bills: This is not a game where the Patriots are going to “turn it around” or anything but Jesus Christ I hope it’s a game where they show some life. There’s potential for some interesting moments here, I guess.
Cowboys at Texans
Chargers at Seahawks
Falcons at Saints
One Throwgasm
Dolphins at Vikings: It’s a classic trap game, but the thing about trap games is you’re not supposed to see them coming. So we’ll all play the part of suspending our disbelief and pretend that this is a blowout in waiting.
Titans at Ravens: I’m sure it’s been done to death to people in either market, but I just now looked it up (like actually, this isn’t a bit) and the Titans are the only team Derrick Henry hasn’t played yet. Two hundred yards.
Cardinals at Giants: I think the Cardinals are technically the statistically worse team, but whatever man this is going to be a shit sandwich and in my heart of hearts the most under-the-radar evil owner in the sport is going to grab a win against the most under-the-radar evil quarterback.
Steelers at Browns
This Week On All Ball
Holy shit, I’ve conned Drew into another week of this podcast. It’s 20 minutes shorter now!
We use this show to call someone infinitely tougher than either of us soft. We hem and haw about how much we’re allowed to do this, and then ultimately decide no one is stopping us, least of all him.
We also discuss if Drake Maye actually stinks, try to figure out if the Texans will be fine, actually, and if Case Keenum should just have the starting job with the Bears. Why not!? It’ll be good for everyone’s character.
In the mailbag, we talk about just how much we like to rip ass, try to puzzle out short-yardage play strategy, and somehow get an epidemiologist to comment on our injury commentary.
The Bills invite us to discuss Millennial Gray, we discuss an outstanding game in Rio, and write off another young quarterback too soon (not the one in the thumbnail). We talk ball! We talk Xs and Os. We use advanced stats! If that’s your bag then subscribe.
As always, you won’t find any gambling or fantasy talk on our show. That’s the All Ball guarantee, now and forever.
Pregame Song That Makes Me Wanna Run Through A Goddamn Brick Wall
“Everything Is Alright” by Motion City Soundtrack. This is a song about anxiety, depression, and OCD, but I swear to god It Fucks. I don’t know what it says about me that the way to run through a brick wall is to be told that things aren’t bad, but something about the vocals layering on top of each other and screaming that shit isn’t bad, actually, makes me get up and go.
Plus it reminds me of me and my high school buddies crowding ourselves into a beat-up Subaru driving through suburbs at 3:00 a.m., avoiding phone calls from worried parents and belting out, “Everything is alright!” while asking each other between verses “did you know this band is from here?”
Fire This Asshole!
I’m bad at hotseats and all that but we can get a stew going.
Todd Bowles*
Jim Harbaugh*
Matt LaFleur
Shane Steichen*
Robert Saleh*
Mike McCarthy
DeMeco Ryans
Dan Quinn
(*potential midseason firing)
I’m really slow to can a coach with a strong winning record, but the Packers owners in my mentions are pretty adamant that fourth-quarter failure Matt LaFleur should be here and hey, I was wrong about Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, so why not trust the process? I can’t see him being fired midseason because this feels like an organization obsessed with doing things The Right Way.
I don’t think McCarthy, Ryans, or Quinn are absolutely going to get fired, but it feels negligent to ignore them.
Gameday Cookin’ Corner
In 2004, I fell in love with a show called Good Eats and watched it religiously, a relationship that ended up lasting for decades. In 2012, Albert Burneko yelled at me a bunch about chicken thighs.
So I combined one of the most audacious recipes from the early Good Eats days that I can remember—40 Cloves and A Chicken—with the knowledge that "chicken thigh don’t give a shit."
So I just replaced all the non-thigh chicken in Alton Brown’s recipe with chicken thighs. Holy fuck. What a move.
Ingredients
6 Chicken Thighs
1/2 cup olive oil (not extra virgin)
1/4 cup chicken stock
5 sprigs fresh thyme
40 cloves garlic, peeled (look, if you settle for 20 that’s honestly fine, but the flavor mellows out)
Bread you can toast into crostinis. A baguette will do. Will you be upset if you use sourdough or white bread? No. I think like two crostinis per thigh?
Seasoning powders:
- Salt
- Pepper
- Paprika
Amounts? I don’t know man. Enough. If you’re white, then more than you think you need. If you’re familiar with chef-sized “pinches” of salt, then one pinch for each thigh. If you’re not, then three pinches for each thigh. If you’re using kosher salt, then more. If table salt, less. Kosher salt is pretty good for control and its flatness can be a boon when it comes to even coverage, but it is less dense so adjust accordingly. Add pepper and paprika to taste.
Again, it’s contextual—if you have freshly ground pepper and the grind is fine, then you won’t need as much as someone using pre-ground pepper that might be coarser (pepper is pretty volatile, meaning a lot of flavor gets lost shortly after it's ground, so I’d recommend investing in a pepper grinder—I think it matters more than most spices that you get this fresh). I get my paprika from a local Penzey’s and it seems to be stronger and more pungent than grocery store paprika. Adjust.
Instructions
Preheat the oven, 350 degrees Fahrenheit.
I use bone-in, skin-on chicken thighs. Lightly coat both sides of the chicken with oil. You will use the rest of the oil later.
You have a choice here. You can get a seared skin that’s going to be crispier or you can brown both sides. If you want the skin to be crispy without browning the other side, put the chicken skin-side down in a cold pan and bring it up to medium-high. That will render the fat and get you a better sear. Starting in a cold pan will get you a crispier skin, but we’re probably not going to end with super crispy skin for this recipe and that’s alright. This will still taste good. Sear the skin, 10 minutes after you hit medium-high temps. It might not release from the pan by the time you move to the next step. That’s expected and OK.
If you want the other option, then start in a hot pan (medium-high) and lay the chicken down skin side up (the skin will want to stick to the pan and starting hot will help avoid this but like you’re going to brown both sides might as well start off with the side less likely to screw you). Brown both sides, 5-7 minutes each side.
Either process—skin-side down in a cold pan or browning both sides starting in a hot pan—should involve you bringing the heat up to medium-high.
Remove the pan from the heat and add the remaining oil, thyme and garlic cloves.
Cover and bake for an hour. But honestly, I’ve adjusted this recipe a million times and instead of me telling you how long it should take, you should just use a probe thermometer and temp the chicken at 165-175.
With the chicken stock, I sometimes add it in halfway through, and it creates a wonderfully sticky sauce in the oven with the chicken, which gets incredibly moist. Other times I use it to make a delicious pan sauce after I remove the chicken from the pan at the end. Up to you.
Remove the pan from the oven, set aside for 15 minutes with the lid on. Use those 15 minutes to toast the crostinis.
Spread the softened, mellowed-out garlic on the crostinis when it’s time to serve.
Gametime Cheap Beer Of The Week
This brewery closed and re-opened this year. I have no idea if their shit is any good anymore but it was incredible the last time I had it. I don’t remember what it costs but it didn’t feel like those fancy Dogfish Head beers I saw a documentary for and it’s not Dragon’s Milk (worth the cost!) so it’s cheap enough.
Gameday Movie Of The Week for Browns Fans
About Time is a rom-com well worth watching, and I say this not as a hater of rom-coms but as someone who has appreciated some of the best of the genre and knows it can be so much more than its reputation. Tim Lake learns that all the men in his family can time travel within their own past and change things. Tim uses that power to improve his life in obvious and non-obvious ways and the entanglement this power produces forces some truly unique hard choices and some incredibly sweet moments. And it’s surprisingly funny throughout. Four stars or whatever.
Gratuitous Simpsons Quote
“Oh boy! The deep fryer’s here. I got it used from the Navy. You can flash-fry a buffalo in 40 seconds.”
“40 seconds? But I want it noooow.”
Enjoy the games, everyone!
