Drew Magary’s Thursday Afternoon NFL Dick Joke Jamboroo runs every Thursday at Defector during the NFL season. Got something you wanna contribute? Email the Roo. You can also read Drew over at SFGATE, and buy Drew’s books while you’re at it.
An internet lifetime ago, ESPN football columnist Gregg Easterbrook was one of my go-to reads. Easterbrook was a pundit for The Atlantic by day, but moonlit over at ESPN's Page 2 to write his Tuesday Morning Quarterback column every week during the NFL season. TMQ included tons of snooty jokes that only George Will would find funny, but it also served as the tip of the spear in introducing analytics to the mainstream football discourse. I hate giving Greggggggg credit for anything, because he’s an eternally haughty dipshit. But he was a notable part of my education as a football fan, and I was an easier mark for his shtick back then than I am now.
For 20-something me, it was worth enduring Easterbrook’s preciousness to read his more entertaining copy, which often recounted strategic errors that NFL teams routinely made simply because those teams hadn’t looked at the data. It was through Easterbrook’s column that I first understood, mathematically, why punting was dumb. And it was Easterbrook who conditioned me to believe that blitzing too often, particularly on third downs, was a recipe for disaster. He had a recurring section in TMQ for failed blitzes titled "Stop Me Before I Blitz Again!" I read that every word of that section, every week. That was because I had watched my own team’s defense get burned in such instances enough times to believe that Easterbrook’s line of thinking was sound, and that his methodology was airtight.
Thankfully, I now know that Easterbrook was wrong. Credit revoked. Go cry about it on your Substack, you withered old fuckball.
As it so happens, the case for blitzing, and blitzing a LOT, has been resoundingly made by my favorite team, the Minnesota Vikings. Through two games this season, the Vikings have a blitz rate of over 75 percent. The next most blitz-happy team is Carolina, which blitzes “only” 48 percent of the time. In fact, if Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores keeps calling blitzes (defined here as sending five or more rushers at the QB on any given down) at his current pace, and there’s little reason to think he won’t, the Vikings will end up with a season-long blitz rate that would not only be the largest in history, but would take the No. 1 spot by double digits. Easterbrook, the kind of pundit who has always reveled in fancying himself smarter than you, is surely aghast. To blitz that often is begging to be torched as a matter of routine.
But it turns out that blitzing on nearly every down might actually make sense from an analytics perspective. Given that we only have this Vikings team as a case study, the data set is still relatively thin. But this extensive piece by my new best podcast friend Arif Hasan details how Flores deduced that the blitz has as much value to NFL defenses as the three-point shot does for NBA teams:
On plays where the offense fails, the likelihood that the failure is significant is much larger on a blitz than a non-blitz. We can visualize this as the rate of “big negative plays” for the offense, which we’ll define as plays worth -1.0 EPA or less—these are plays like a big incompletion on third down, a devastating second-down sack, or a turnover.
On blitzes, 36.7 percent of negative offensive plays were big. 0.6 percent of them saw a defensive score. On non-blitzes, 27.9 percent of negative offensive plays were big and 0.4 percent saw a defensive score.
In other words, yes, of course it looks bad when you call a blitz and the other team torches you for it, as Packers QB Jordan Love did to Minnesota in their Week 1 meeting. Give up a play like that and you never want to hear the word “blitz” again, much less call one. But at some point, Flores theorized that blitzing all the time would, over time, lead to more big plays for his unit than for the other team’s offense. That was borne out in that same game against Green Bay, which Love finished with two turnovers and four sacks taken as the Vikings scored 29 unanswered points in the second half to put Green Bay into the shitter. Flores similarly blitzed the unholy shit out of Chicago QB Caleb Williams the following week, and the result was Minnesota holding the Bears to three points when that team had scored 59 the week prior.
Flores’s success hasn’t come from simply mashing one button over and over again. His defense requires talented players, as all good defenses do. And it requires those players to have fully mastered Flores’s concepts, so that they can think like mini-Floreses while out on the field; this is why the coach rarely gives rookies extensive playing time. You can read deeper into the X's and O's of it here if you like, but the long and short of it is that not just any defense could copy what Flores’s defenses can do.
But no other defense has ever really tried to do it. The Vikings’ success with mass blitzing under Flores suggests that every team you once thought blitzed a lot—Buddy Ryan’s 1985 Bears, Dick LeBeau’s zone-blitzing units in Pittsburgh, etc.—didn’t actually blitz enough to tilt the analytics in their favor. Blitzing at a 50 percent rate would be an outlier at any point in NFL history, and yet doing something only half the time doesn’t exactly scream commitment, does it? Flores has been the lone coach to decide that you only get the full benefits of blitzing if you do it literally almost every play. And if his D gets burned every now and then, that's the cost of doing business.
The results on the field have proven it. In Flores’s first season with Minnesota, the team finished the season ranked 14th in scoring defense, up from 30th the season prior. Since that first season on the job in 2023, his unit has never finished outside of the top seven in that category. They’ve finished in the top five in sacks every year across that same timespan, and that’s as Flores has increased his blitz rate season by season with the Vikings. Every time he cranks the ol’ blitz dial higher, his unit does more damage. This has the potential to be revelatory to the rest of the NFL, if it hadn’t already made Flores into a pariah working in plain sight.
Brian Flores will probably never get another head coaching job in the NFL again. He put himself on the unofficial blacklist when he sued the league for discrimination four years ago. Much to the chagrin of Roger Goodell, his case has cleared nearly every legal hurdle that the league has thrown at it over the ensuing four years and will go to trial. In the spring, ESPN reported that Flores’s legal team served over 1,000 discovery requests to help prove the coach’s case that he was fired as then-head coach of the Dolphins in accordance with a pattern of widespread, systemic racism across the entire NFL. If Flores doesn’t win his case, he can at least embarrass the shit out of the league with whatever his lawyers end up forcing out into public view. Giddyup, cowboy.
The threat of that alone is why Flores hasn’t been offered a head coaching gig since Miami owner Stephen Ross shitcanned him at the end of the 2021 season, despite winning more games than he lost over his final two seasons in that position. Reporting in the wake of Flores’s ouster suggests that he was far too much of a raging prick to win over his locker room—shocking news to hear about a guy who learned at the foot of Bill Belichick—and Flores himself has since acknowledged that his bedside manner in South Florida was lousy. Maybe he’s one of many great NFL coordinators who simply lacks the acumen for a head coaching job. That’s no sin. But lord knows that far worse retreads have been given a second chance, including Belichick himself. This man deserves to be a head coach right now. This instant. Anyone with a working football mind knows it.
I’d like to think that Flores could still get that chance if his Vikings win a Super Bowl. But that’s naïve because the Vikings don’t win Super Bowls, because their current QB situation gives them no chance to win one this season, and because NFL owners aren’t going to magically become un-racist. The fact that Flores can only get cursory interviews these days more than proves his case. No other coach in league history has dared to attempt what this man is doing. Thanks to the NFL’s pigheadedness, perhaps no other coach ever will. And that sucks. I thought that every last analytical edge in football had been discovered. I used to think Gregg Easterbrook was a good writer, too. I’m wiser now. Let’s see if the NFL can ever be.
The Games
All games in the Jamboroo are evaluated for sheer watchability on a scale of 1 to 5 Throwgasms.
Five Throwgasms
Patriots at Jaguars: Given the recent combined antics of Pats owner Bob Kraft and head coach Mike Vrabel, you might have missed RB TreVeyon Henderson bravely shouting to all who might listen, Hey, I’m a complete asswipe too! You should hate my guts too! I find it oddly heartening that, now bereft of Bill Belichick or Tom Brady, the Patriots organization has gone out of its way to remain loathsome as it enters this new age of general competence. I hope that Drake Maye peaces out for Tampa 20 years earlier than Brady did.
Four Throwgasms
Ravens at Cowboys (Rio): This game is in Brazil, but will occupy the late Sunday afternoon slot instead of airing in the early morning, as most Europe games do. I promise you that, not long from now, the NFL will create an 18-week slate of 9 a.m. ET games played abroad, and sell it as a separate TV package to some network/streaming service. I will cry GREED when this happens. I’ll also watch all of those morning games while enjoying my Raisin Bran Crunch.
Rams at Broncos
Three Throwgasms
Raiders at Saints: Are either of these teams any good? Probably not. But hey, they’re among the handful of teams who didn’t have one of their most important players spontaneously combust last week. In a 17-game NFL, that makes any team a Super Bowl contender! HOORAY FOR BATTLES OF ATTRITION!
Texans at Colts
Jets at Lions
Two Throwgasms
Chargers at Bills: My son plays varsity soccer at his local high school. I only mention this because, in our county, any high school soccer game that’s tied after 80 minutes of regulation goes to two 10-minute periods of extra time. All of that hews pretty closely to pro soccer elimination formats, with one exception. At the high school level here, all extra-time periods are Golden Goal, i.e. sudden death. The pros never do Golden Goal overtime because it compels both sides to retreat into full defense. That is, no one tries to actually SCORE the winning goal.
But high school is another matter. These kids all wanna be heroes, and so they spend all extra time attacking, attacking, attacking. I have now watched my son’s team win two games with a Golden Goal, and it fucking rocks. True sudden death is the best shit ever. This is my way of saying that I would now like the NFL to go back to its original OT format. I don’t give a fuck if you lost the toss. I demand urgency.
Eagles at Bears
Vikings at Bucs
One Throwgasm
Titans at Giants: I’ve had my fun making countless “Boy, Jaxson Dart sure loves to hurt himself!” jokes over the past year and change. But now that our man is out for the year with a stew of braised knee ligaments, the joke is really on me. Because for all of Jaxson Dart’s idiocy, he’s pretty fucking good! He can ID defenses when he gets to the line of scrimmage, go through his progressions quickly, and has the arm talent/stature to make all of the plays. He’s a fun QB to watch, which makes his hit-prone tendencies all the more aggravating. As much as I’m hater, I don’t actually WANT to see dudes get hurt (except for Aaron Rodgers). Because now that Dart is gone, what are you and I left with? Smilin’ Jameis Winston, overthrowing every wideout by 10 yards and then making the “Oops, did I do that?” face afterward. It’s fucking depressing.
Speaking of depressing, Dart was already miles better than Cam Ward, who went No. 1 overall in the 2025 draft. Ward is fully healthy, but stuck with a shit franchise and terminally unable to throw the ball for over 200 yards in a game. If the Titans organization doesn’t deserve better than that, there has to be at least eight Titans fans out there who do.
Falcons at Packers
Cardinals at 49ers
Seahawks at Commanders
Bengals at Steelers
Chiefs at Dolphins
Panthers at Browns
This Week On All Ball
Our new NFL podcast is already three weeks old! WOW! AMAZING! Where does the time go, I ask you?
Anyway, in this episode, Arif Hasan and I cop to our new podcast being something of a work in progress. We still have to iron out the format a touch but more important, both of us feel compelled to imbue this show with what I’ll describe as The Defector Personality. What does that personality entail? Well, it means dovetailing into yammering on about wholly unrelated bullshit (I openly rue eating a stack of pancakes before we hit the RECORD button), an obvious progressive bent (we both ask aloud why every headline about Trump isn’t “Get A Load Of This Insane Dickhead”), and a surprisingly insightful look into the Xs and Os of our favorite sport (turns out that there is a point at which running play action passes will yield diminishing returns). If that sounds like the kind of NFL podcast that’s been absent from your life until now, then bring it on in, motherfucker.
As always, you won’t find any gambling or fantasy talk on our show. That’s the All Ball guarantee, now and forever. And go sub to Arif’s newsletter if you want more where that came from. The Reefer is a man who does his homework.
Pregame Song That Makes Me Wanna Run Through A Goddamn Brick Wall
“Futurephobic,” by Frankie and the Witch Fingers. Complete with a video starring a psychotic Ronald McDonald! From Scott:
Now that you're a synthboy, why not throw a bone to Frankie and the Witch Fingers, who combine Devo-ish jittery synths with Sabbath riffage? “Futurephobic” features America's second-favorite dangerous clown making meat out of a quite devolvéd fellow.
I will never be able to resist '80s-style retro videos. If it looks like it was shot on a PXL2000 and cost $50 to make, I’m gonna give it at least 50 seconds of my time.
Get In Shape With Dr. Cam Skattebo, A.S.U.!
“Everything you know about how the human knee works is wrong. My colleague, Dr. Ace Stacer, has a TikTok channel where he explains that terms like ‘ACL,’ ‘MCL,’ and ‘meniscus’ were fabricated by the medical industry in order to sell people on unnecessary knee surgeries. Allow me to show you a proper anatomical diagram.”
“You’ll notice a series of very small circles in the cross section of this knee. Those circles represent what we in the neomedical field refer to as zibules. What is a zibule? It’s a very small sac, roughly the size of a pea, filled with mineral water, that cushions the bones and keeps the leg muscles in your leg. When one of these sacs bursts, the Perrier flows into the bloodstream and causes a ‘disruption’ of the knee, not unlike the one my buddy Jaxson Dart just suffered. I tried talking JD out of getting surgery, but the league’s goons got to him before I could. Fucking bullshit.
“It’s not too late for the rest of you, though. If you’re suffering from severe knee problems, the best treatment is protein-infused candy. I tend to recommend Maxi-Airheads to my patients, but you’re free to shop around as you see fit. Now go take care of those zibules!”
Fire This Asshole!
Is there anything more exciting than a coach losing his job? All year long, we’ll keep track of which coaches will almost certainly get fired at year’s end or sooner. And now, your potential 2026 chopping block:
Jim Harbaugh*
John Harbaugh
Shane Steichen*
Todd Bowles*
Dan Quinn*
Robert Saleh
Dan Campbell
Kevin Stefanski
Mike McCarthy
(*potential midseason firing)
How many hours has Jim Harbaugh spent this week trying to figure out a dignified way to get out of his current job? I bet he’s still on the phone with his agent as we speak, asking if Clemson might be willing to buy out a portion of his contract.
Gameday Cookin’ Corner
To get you in a tailgatin’ kinda mood, reader Asherdan is treating us to dry rub for beef. This is a fairly basic recipe, but I mean that as a compliment. Everybody should have a cache of go-to recipes that are easy to throw together. Take it away, amigo:
Wanted to throw in my basic beef dry rub because who doesn't love a hank of well-cooked beef all slathered up tasty?
So, put the following in a smallish bowl and mix 'er up:
1 Tsp Cumin
1 Tsp Garlic Powder
1 Tsp Onion Powder
1 Tbsp Paprika
1 Tbsp Brown Sugar
1 Tsp Black Pepper
1 Tsp Salt (optional)
I stir it all up nice and put the beef in a big enough freezer bag to hold it and pour in the mix, stopping to roll the beef around in the bag and make sure it's thoroughly coated. Then I'll toss it in the fridge so it can rest around until I cook it the next day. Every now and then I'll grab it out of the fridge and massage it around and mutter little endearments to it, "Oh yeah, you're gonna be a tasty tasty beef, aren't you pretty beef baby" and such things.
Pull your beef out the next day before you cook it and let it come up to roughly room temp, then cookify that beefy beast.
In this case, it was a little brisket from a half beef I went and smoked
I've tried it out on brisket, prime rib roast, tri tip with pretty good success.
I have zero doubt of that.
Gametime Cheap Beer Of The Week
Gallo, the beer that puts the “cock” in “coldcock”! From Gregory:
I spend a lot of time in El Salvador for military deployments. We’re not trying to overthrow their government or anything. We use their airport to fly our helicopters to ships offshore. Everyone wins.
Anyways, they brew many terrible beers here, but Gallo is the best of the bunch. It’s actually brewed in Guatemala. The can makes me want to get up at dawn and yell at people like a rooster. The taste is Beast Light fermented in a chicken coop. Plus you can get a 12-pack at the grocery store for $3.00 US and change.
Now that’s what I call a deal!
Gameday Movie Of The Week For Falcons Fans
Obsession, which has earned over half a billion dollars at the worldwide box office as of this writing. There’s nothing particularly new about Curry Barker’s horror movie—it’s about a dude who wishes his unrequited crush would obsess over him; the wish is granted to nasty effect—but it’s executed so well that I understand why everyone went to go see it. The final twist alone had me laughing like a demon, same way the ending of Weapons did. I’ve avoided horror films, particularly slasher movies, for the bulk of my life. But I don’t get weirded out by movies like this the way I used to. You know why? Because I’m a tough guy now. I don’t scare as easy anymore.
[I see a spider cricket in our basement]
EEEEEEEEEEK! HONEY CAN YOU COME KILL THIS BUG FOR ME?!
Three stars to this one. One Wish Willow references will replace Simpsons monkey’s paw references in due time. You heard it here first (NOTE: You probably didn’t hear it here first). Also, I didn’t recognize Andy Richter in this movie until his name popped up in the end credits. Not because he’s wearing prosthetics or anything; he’s just old now.
Gratuitous Simpsons Quote
“Hey kids, nachos Flanders style! That's cucumbers with cottage cheese!”
Enjoy the games, everyone.
