Now that the World Cup field is set, and the international breaks are over, it's time for the club season's final sprint. The top European leagues have comfortable leaders—except for Paris Saint-Germain, who is only four points up on Lens in Ligue 1—but there's still enough time for narratives there to flip. There are also domestic cups to be handed out, and trophies to be won or lost. However, the best drama left in the season is definitely in the Champions League, where at least half the quarterfinalists can reasonably convince themselves that they can win the whole thing, and the other four teams wouldn't need much hope to believe the same.
The draw has set up some juicy quarterfinal showdowns, with even more enticing semifinals on the horizon. There's a rematch of an exciting Copa del Rey semifinal, a showdown between the reigning continental champs and the most successful club in England, and the Champions League final boss of Real Madrid facing its second consecutive mega-challenge. There's plenty to talk about in each of these matchups, but let's start with the one that should, on paper, be the most lopsided contest, the one between the current Premier League leaders and a Portuguese side looking to prove that it's not out of its depth.
Arsenal is probably the best team in Europe. Arsenal is definitely the best team in the Premier League. Arsenal should be the favorite to win the Champions League. Arsenal is not to be trusted. These things all feel true as the Gunners head into these quarterfinals, and it's to Arsenal's both credit and demerit that I have no idea which version of the team will show up against Sporting Lisbon. On the one hand, the economic, talent, and performance gaps skew heavily in Arsenal's favor. With all due respect to Sporting, this is a team that struggled to put away Bodo-Glimt in the round of 16, needing a monster second-leg performance to overcome a 3-0 first-leg defeat. Arsenal is really good at choking the life out of opponents, and Sporting will likely not have enough firepower to burst through the best defense in Europe.
However ... Arsenal feels perpetually on the verge of pulling a, well, Arsenal, which is to say that its hold on the Premier League and the favorite status in the Champions League both feel tenuous. Cracks have appeared in Arsenal's facade in recent weeks, especially in knockout tournaments, and though the cracks are small, they are still concerning. First, there was the Gunners' first-leg 1-1 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League round of 16, which they only salvaged due to a very generous late penalty. Arsenal did go on to win the return leg in North London 2-0, which might've dispelled the concerns. But it's what then happened in the two domestic cups that really raised the eyebrows.
Arsenal's dream of a quadruple was still alive as recently as the League Cup final on Mar. 22, but a rather comprehensive 2-0 Manchester City win there put an end to that. That's a bad sign, sure, but Manchester City is a good, if inconsistent, team, capable of beating absolutely anyone on any given day. I'm not sure how to explain what happened this past weekend to Arsenal, though, as it lost the FA Cup quarterfinal to second-division Southampton 2-1.
That could be a fluke loss for Arsenal—though don't tell the Southampton social media team that—or it could be a warning sign coming into the season's run-in. Arsenal has, historically, had issues sealing the deal over the last two decades, at least when it comes to trophies (three straight runner-up finishes domestically, Europa League runner-up in 2019, runner-up in the Champions League in 2006). Before "lads, it's Tottenham" became the signature choking meme du jour, Arsenal were the go-to exemplars of bottling, and though it would be unlikely for Sporting to follow Southampton's lead and eliminate Arsenal, a shaky showing in the first leg this week could throw things into a tailspin. Still, though, Arsenal has shown enough defensive solidity and enough ability to get clutch goals by any means necessary (penalties and set-piece goals all count the same on the scoreboard) that it should remain the favorite heading into the final eight of the Champions League.
While Arsenal tries to power through Sporting and into the club's second straight Champions League semifinals, the other match on that side of the bracket is an all-Spanish affair. Neither Barcelona nor Atlético Madrid are particularly fearsome this season. Barcelona does sit comfortably in first place in La Liga, but that reflects the general downness of Spanish soccer this year, and the Blaugrana's European competitors have already exposed the fact that what happens in Spain isn't what happens elsewhere. While a 2-1 loss to PSG is acceptable enough, it's harder to reconcile Barcelona's contender status with a 3-3 draw against Club Brugge and a 3-0 whomping at the hands of Chelsea. Even though Barca roared to life with a 7-2 defeat of Newcastle United in the second leg of the round of 16, I wouldn't back the side in a potential matchup against Arsenal in the semis, especially not with Raphinha out of the tie with a hamstring injury.
On the other side, Atlético is safely in fourth place in La Liga but miles off title pace, and I wouldn't say that the club has shown much in the Champions League. A 14th-place finish in the league phase and comfortable yet not particularly impressive knockout ties against Club Brugge (7-4 aggregate) and a spiraling Tottenham (7-5 aggregate) leave Atleti with some momentum heading into this quarterfinal, though Barcelona just beat the side in Madrid 2-1 in league play this past weekend.
Prior to that matchup, Atlético had gotten the most recent laugh, beating Barca 4-3 on aggregate in the Copa del Rey semis.
As for either Spanish side derailing the Arsenal train en route to the final, it's certainly possible. Barcelona can always turn any match into a shootout—see last year's semifinals against Inter Milan—and that's a style of game Arsenal isn't as comfortable playing. Atlético, on the other hand, can always drag opponents into filthier muck than even Arsenal can, and while it might not be the most aesthetically pleasing semifinal matchup imaginable, I'd love to see how Mikel Arteta's pragmatic style clashes with Diego Simeone's chaotic gameplans.
On the other side of the bracket, there are two distinct favorites matched up against two sides that can always bring it, even in their current states of malaise.
Let's start with a rematch from last year's round of 16: Liverpool vs. PSG. PSG came out ahead in that tie by the slimmest of margins, advancing after a penalty shootout victory.
We know what happened after that. This year, it's safe to say both clubs have disappointed, though at broadly different levels. PSG is still winning Ligue 1 at the moment, and now has most everyone healthy after spending most of the season ravaged on the injury front. Liverpool, on the other hand, followed last year's dominant Premier League title with a disaster season; at the moment, the Pool Boys sit in fifth place domestically, with some truly embarrassing losses on their collective ledger. Liverpool also crashed out of the League Cup in October courtesy of a 3-0 smacking by Crystal Palace, and just got ousted from the FA Cup quarters via 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Manchester City. In Arne Slot's second year, Liverpool has looked terrible at times, though the club still has enough firepower to make life hell for anyone. Whether or not the team will live up to its potential is the question hanging over every Liverpool match, and more often than not, the club has not done it this year.
Liverpool is getting a boost from Alexander Isak's return from injury for this tie, however, and if the Swede can hit the ground running, he could prove key in Liverpool's chances to knock out PSG. Unfortunately, Alisson has been sidelined for weeks with a hamstring injury, and missing one of the best goalkeepers in the world might be tough luck against PSG's incredible attack. If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia can keep his torrid goalscoring form going—seven goals in the Champions League this season—Liverpool might not have enough to truly challenge PSG's quest to repeat as champions of the Champions.
The winner of that tie will have a hell of a task in the semis, regardless of who advances from the other quarterfinal matchup. That's because Bayern Munich could very well be the most dangerous side in this tournament, while Real Madrid is Real Madrid, and so it would be foolish to count them out. Let's start with Real, actually, who have had a completely unpredictable season across all competitions.
The club sits second in La Liga, lost to second division Albacete in the Copa del Rey, and finished outside of the top eight in the league phase of the Champions League. But then! Madrid comfortably dispatched of Benfica in the knockout playoffs, and then ran roughshod over Manchester City in the round of 16, by the tune of a 5-1 aggregate victory. Kylian Mbappé has been the most prolific goalscorer in the tournament, with 13 goals, and it looks like he's all healed up from an injury to one of his knees (don't ask Real which one) that had been bothering him for a while. Though Madrid just lost this past weekend to Mallorca in La Liga, this is the Champions League, always the one true apple of the club's eye. Add in a bit of that Madrid dark magic, and anyone who tries to knock the Spaniards out will have a tough time.
That dark magic might have already struck Bayern Munich ahead of the first leg of the quarterfinal. Harry Kane, who has been almost as prolific as Mbappé (10 goals) this season, picked up an ankle injury during the international break with England, and will reportedly be a gametime decision for the first leg. Even without Kane, though, Bayern is terrifying. Aside from starting to run away with the Bundesliga crown, Bayern has shown up for all but one of its Champions League matches this season, racking up victories over PSG, Chelsea, and Sporting in the league phase, and a 10-2 annihilation of Atalanta in the round of 16.
Bayern's one misstep was a 3-1 loss to Arsenal, which would be meaty narrative fuel if both clubs make the final.
Alongside Kane, if he plays, will be Michael Olise—who is having a true superstar season at age 24 (11 goals and a whopping 18 assists in Bundesliga play)—and Luis Díaz, who moved over from Liverpool last summer and immediately became one of Bayern's most important players. Bayern is stacked enough in attack to survive if Kane can't go in the first leg, and should beat Real Madrid by any conceivable logic. Of course, this is Real Madrid in the Champions League, and that means logic can go out the window, doubly so when Mbappé is as deadly as he has been this season.
There's no point in making predictions about what will happen over the next eight days in the Champions League, not with three ties that could be wide open, and a fourth that isn't quite as free for the favorite as it might seem. Whatever permutation of clubs advance as the field shrinks to four will all deserve it and will all have a real chance to win the tournament, so there's little to predict and a lot to hope for. I personally hope that Barcelona and Atlético put on another banger of a match, and that Liverpool is up to the PSG challenge, at least enough to repeat last season's thrills. I hope Harry Kane can go against Real Madrid, so that everyone can see whether talent can trump aura. And, uh, I guess I hope Sporting doesn't get blown out. Regardless of what does happen, though, the quarterfinals this year are what the Champions League is all about: Just a bunch of heavyweights slamming into each other and hoping to limp on to the next round, where they have to do it all over again.
