There were a number of intriguing discoveries to be made from the first round of matches in Group D of the World Cup, or as it is coming to be known, the Group Of Deaf. Such was the torrent of nearly hysterical praise directed at the United States team after its nearly ritualistic beating of Paraguay Friday night. No U.S. team had ever been so demonstratively superior in World Cup history, and no team had the level of semi-journalistic and marketing hysteria driving home that point. In other words, a 4-1 victory has rarely looked so 4-1.
But the problem of making judgments based on one match worth of data is that it provides less useful information than one thinks. For instance, what if the quiet reveal from that match is actually that Paraguay isn't very good at all. To be sure, the Americans looked and played as though they were physically more imposing and demonstrably quicker both on and off the ball, almost as if the game were too easy for them. But we know from our reading that the U.S. is typically more devoted to grind-it-out games that are hard on the eye as well as the scoreboard, so it is wise to take their Day 2 victory with the proper amount of salt. Say, a metric ton.
After all, playing the most dominant game in U.S. World Cup history is a nice thing, but the Americans aren't playing against previous American sides. Moreover, the Australian team that whipped Turkiye 2-0 Saturday night came off as a funkier yet pacier version of the typical Aussie side, from goalkeeper Patrick Beach on out. They absorbed far more blows from the Turks than they dealt, and had a startlingly low 28 percent possession figure, but Beach, a surprise starter, kept them at arm's length, and sent them to Friday afternoon's match with the U.S. in Seattle with a sense that they can make it a difficult day.
It is, at the least, certain to provide more context than we currently have. While first impressions are helpful, 23 other teams will make favorable first impressions, and many of those will turn out false because the math says they must.
The matches are meant to be tougher at each stage, after all, and it is difficult to see Folarin Balogun, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie having the run of the grounds that they had Friday. The Australians seem better equipped to absorb the pressure the Americans provide, and the question of Christian Pulisic's availability after a calf issue that caused manager Mauricio Pochettino to pull him at halftime is still very much an open one. Oh, and did we mention that the Turks mostly outplayed the Australians except in the one thing everyone notices?
We reiterate these things not only to pad this column out but to point out that months of emotional buildup could not have gone better for the U.S., as Americans love to watch a good butt-kicking as long as they are not the butt in question. Toward that end (no pun intended, necessarily), Balogun in particular and the U.S. attack en masse delivered the kind of soccer that even casuals can figure out. Running fast, always having the ball, and shooting often at the other team's goal does not require the technical nous of, say Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The American performance was easy for patriotic junkies and regular old sports fans to comprehend and support, even if just on aesthetic grounds.
But unless we have missed our guess (the real explanation for the xG acronym), the Australians are likely to be better at stiffing those forays than the Paraguayans were, and once done are better at the counterattack that produced both their goals. And the Turks, though they play heavily through the middle, are indeed the more talented side in general. At least more talented than the Paraguayans.
In short, the Americans delivered everything their audience could have wanted in round one. But now comes the harder slog: doing it again in less commodious conditions, against teams that on the one hand absorb pressure better and create it better on the other. The U.S. brought the feel-good in a shockingly easy opener. Now it has to show the grind and attention to the less sexy details, the ones that not only get it out of the group but provide a sense that it really has the substance to backfill the style.
