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Connor Hellebuyck Won’t Start In Winnipeg Because Of “Expected Win Probability”

9:00 AM EST on November 9, 2026

NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 05: Connor Hellebuyck #37 of the New Jersey Devils during the National Anthem prior to the game against the St. Louis Blues on Novenber 5 2026 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Graessle/NHLI via Getty Images)
Rich Graessle/NHLI via Getty Images

Some of the most memorable nights in hockey are driven by malice. If the NHL could capture in a bottle the atmosphere of John Tavares's first trip to Long Island after signing with Toronto, or Brady Tkachuk's Ottawa return as a Panther, it could and would sell it. And fans would buy it, because what these nights are really about is catharsis: the purging of resentments and the reaffirmation of loyalties. It's a nice thing to do from time to time. Builds community. Strengthens fandom. Probably good for mental health. The crowd that boos together, cheers together.

Winnipeg wants and deserves a night of catharsis, to wish a not-so-fond farewell to Connor Hellebuyck, the greatest player the franchise has ever had, and who got so sick of both losing and living in Winnipeg that he forced his way to New Jersey. And wouldn't you know it, the Devils are on a Canada swing, and will take on the Jets on Tuesday. It ought to be personality-driven appointment viewing, in a league that doesn't have nearly enough of that. But the Devils have affirmed their commitment to non-entertainment. Connor Hellebuyck will not start in Winnipeg, per an all-timer of an official statement.

Let us spend some time dwelling on the phrasing, "playing in this game would potentially give us a reduction in our expected win probability." Sunny Mehta is the highly respected new front-office honcho in Newark, and he's already made some bold moves to improve the Devils, and he's part of a class of analytically oriented hockey minds that have (blessedly) ended the jocks vs. dorks debate that every sport has had to contend with this century. But bloodlessly citing "expected win probability" to explain why you're going to deny fans a special and emotional evening threatens to set the movement back.

Also: nerd shit! There are 84 damn games. One sub-optimal roster decision in one game's not going to kill you. Even if we pretend that starting Hellebuyck over Jake Allen is ever sub-optimal, no matter how many rest days are involved.

Hellebuyck is as fresh as any goalie can be in November, having played just five games because of his hold-out. He played Thursday, sat Saturday on the first night of back-to-backs, and played Sunday, shutting out the Leafs in a 4-0 victory. If the Devils wanted Hellebuyck to start in Winnipeg, they easily could have switched the weekend's two starters. As it is, he'll have played just one game in five days. I do not and will never buy that this was a decision forced on the Devils by the schedule.

Hellebuyck insists "it's out of my hands." After Sunday's win in Toronto, he told reporters, "I'm disappointed, but I understand. Selfishly I want to play." If we take him at his word and do not accuse him of passing the buyck, we must then regard Mehta as not just a good GM but also an effective human shield, for the invective he's sparing his investment. Is Hellebuyck, or any goalie, really so fragile-minded that taking his Manitoban medicine has the potential to affect his play over a longer stretch? Someone in New Jersey sure seems to think so, and maybe that's enough to make it true.

Jets fans will have to get their messaging in early. Like: pregame-skate early. When he's not playing, Hellebuyck traditionally doesn't sit on the bench, instead staying back in the video to watch the game with staff. Unless he changes up his routine—and goalies never do—he won't even be passively presented to Winnipeggers as an objet d'angst. What a missed opportunity.

Look, I get that complaining about the way the Devils do business can come off like sour grapes. The Hellebuyck trade has paid early but undeniable dividends for them: He's 5-0-0 and allowing under two goals a game. They're on a 10-of-11 heater and have surged to second in the Metro and look like a wagon. The NHL has its haves and have-nots, and the have-nots are cursed to watch the players they love leave and thrive elsewhere, and all they can do about it is vote with their voices. It is cruel to deny them even that. It is for this reason that I hope Jake Allen allows eight goals in the first period.

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