Must Every Leafy Thing Be So Freighted With Meaning? Yes, Yes It Must

Let's play a game. What do you expect was the outcome of this 3-on-0?

Expectations are a funny thing in sports. They are as subject to the observer effect as any quantum mechanic: When a player or a team is aware of them, they may tend to play up to or exceed those expectations, or play down to them, as the case may be. Or they may be rattled and fall short. All this depends on temperament. The Maple Leafs have more observers than anyone, and their expectations are historically the least rooted in reality. Expectations and belief are two separate things, and in Toronto—at least among the 1050 caller demographic—those things are forever at war. Fans and local media believe that the Leafs will not achieve what is expected of them, even though those fans and media are the ones doing the expecting. It's a weird scene.

So, what do you think happened above? It's a 3-on-0 in overtime. It's very hard to not score. One expects to score. But you, the reader, have prior information. You know I would probably not be presenting this to you in this way if it went as expected. And you know, above all else, that these are the Leafs.

It is admittedly unfair to highlight this in a game the Leafs won. But blog habits die hard. And it's a nice little microcosm of GTA expectations: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, count on nothing.

The expectations surrounding the Leafs are mixed as hell this year. They'd need to improve by 20 points to even sniff the playoffs. But they also acquired a 30-goal guy in his prime in Kirill Marchenko, and for relatively cheap with the get-me-out-of-Columbus discount. And they have Gavin McKenna, the first overall pick. He would have entered the league with plenty of hype no matter where he landed, but he landed in the one place that he'll be a failure if his early career falls anywhere short of Auston Matthews's. (Who, by the way, has two years left on his deal, and don't think there's not lots of agita about that already. Never a dull moment.)

Can three games even be considered a start? It's a slow one when you've got the expectations that McKenna has for himself and Toronto has for him, no matter that he's still just 18 years old. "I still believe in myself," McKenna said Tuesday morning after failing to put himself on the scoresheet. "But you know, especially in the Toronto media, putting up zero points in three games, you hear about it. So maybe that’s my 'welcome to the NHL.'"

McKenna had a sleepover (his word) at Matthews's place Sunday night. They watched football and ate sandwiches. It was probably good for the vibes, which have been a little flat. The Leafs started their season 1-2-0, all home games, and they scored exactly two goals in all of those games, which isn't going to cut it. They tried to get right on Tuesday hosting the Predators, and it started poorly enough, with Nashville going up 3-0 early in the third. One believes the Leafs are capable of shooting their way to a comeback, yet one does not expect it.

Yet! John Tavares (with McKenna recording his first assist) and William Nylander scored to made it a game, and after Steven Stamkos potted his second of the night to return the lead to two goals, McKenna finally found the net.

It was the first of what should be many, and the Toronto fans erupted for it. They want, very desperately, to have reasons to cheer, and to have a long and uncomplicatedly positive relationship with a homegrown star. This is a chance to start over, to right the wrongs of the Marner/Matthews era. Or maybe it was just an ordinary goal in an early-season game. Still "that one felt good,” McKenna said. “A big monkey off the back."

Jack Roslovic would score in the third to tie things up, and it headed to overtime 4-4—where the Leafs would flub their three-man advantage. But that's forgiven and forgotten, because with a shootout looming, Matthews sent home a juicy rebound after a great individual effort from Nylander.

Three-goal comeback, Leafs win. Good feelings. Pretty much how you'd draw it up, with goals from the three remaining members of the Big Four, plus the new kid who's expected to join them. That's a whole lot of weight to dump on one October victory. Still, this the curse and the blessing of expectations. A .500 team might just be exactly who these Leafs are, yet their entire future feels forever perched on a knife's edge.