Before Tadej Pogacar became a hypertuned killer on a bike, before he won any of his record-tying five Tours de France, before he was able to push the boundaries of the volume and variety of races that any single rider could win, he first had to break through. He did so seven years ago at the 2019 Vuelta a España, wherein he won three stages and finished third overall despite coming to Spain to learn how to race and to support Fabio Aru.
Pogacar's talent was as obvious as his inexperience, and that Vuelta remains a fascinating snapshot of the state of sport right before he redefined it: rim brakes, Nairo Quintana, a version of Pogacar that didn't know what he was doing. We'll never see that stuff again, though we will get Pogi at the Vuelta for the second and perhaps final time.
Why does the Vuelta matter so much to Pogacar? There is not much more left for him to win. It can be a difficult memory exercise, but the world's best cyclists haven't won like Pogacar has for at least four decades. Guys used to specialize, or at least be burdened by the variety of terrain. But Pogacar has won every major stage race except the Tour of the Basque Country. He has won every monument except Paris-Roubaix. He has everything: five Tours, 13 Monuments, a span and breadth of career-wide victory unseen since the days of steel frames. Pogacar is a student of the sport, which has fueled a completist streak. He will do his best to win the Tour every year, and he'll usually succeed, but it's the other stuff that intrigues. Pogacar rocked up to Romandie and the Tour de Suisse this year and smoked the field. The Vuelta is the only Grand Tour left for him to win.
The 2019 Vuelta was, again, raced by a different Pogacar. He was the race's best rider in the third week, but he was also impulsive and unstrategic on several major stages. That's an amazing combination, one foreign to the modern Pogacar experience. The modern version of Pogacar knows when to attack, who is the biggest threat, and how to dispatch them. His power of application is incredibly fine. Not so much in 2019. He was painting with a broad brush, attacking at stupid moments, not understanding the interplay of offense and defense. He was an over-exuberant virtuoso, someone so assured of his strength he didn't yet need to know how to race with his brain. His third-place doesn't quite count as a near-miss, but look at the other two podium finishers. Primoz Roglic is a tragic figure who never quite won the big one, and Alejandro Valverde is a biological miracle (derogatory). Pogacar is a meteor and they're dinosaurs.
Pogacar teased his Vuelta assault during the final week of the 2026 Tour. By the second rest day, his greatest rival had crashed out and he was riding for his teammate, his victory in Paris all but assured. With Pogacar cruising to that victory, and with the list of career accomplishments growing ever thinner, it was hard not to think of Pogacar's career primarily in the future tense. Why wouldn't he go for the Vuelta and try to wrap up the Grand Tour triple crown? There were few big-time challengers taking the line in Spain, the race starts in his adopted hometown of Monaco, and he was clearly not going full-gas at the Tour. He wouldn't talk about it during the Tour, though rumors flew, and he was wishy-washy when asked directly.
It's worth briefly walking through why Pogacar took seven years between Vueltas. For one, the race's notorious difficulty means you can't really go in halfassing it. The Vuelta is also in a strange place on the calendar, after the Tour but before the World Championships, and late enough in the season that everyone's plans have shuffled around a bunch. UAE has adopted a conservative approach with young riders, limiting them to one Grand Tour per season. That's why Isaac Del Toro wasn't at the Vuelta last year, and why Pogacar didn't double-up in either 2020 or '21 despite being the best rider in the world already.
The team planned to send him in '22, though after he lost that Tour to Jonas Vingegaard, he was exhausted and needed a break before Worlds. The '23 Vuelta was never in the cards, because Worlds was earlier that season, and was super not on the cards after Pogacar lost again and struggled with a wrist injury.
In 2024, the world-eating iteration of Pogacar we know today emerged, first at the Giro d'Italia. His ass was not going to try to win all three Grand Tours in one season, though I would have loved to see him try. UAE was lining up a run at the '25 Vuelta for Pogacar, which was again scuppered by Pogacar's miserable (albeit dominant) Tour win and a minor knee injury he picked up.
So 2026 it is. After the Tour, Pogacar has mostly chilled. His team's performance director Jeroen Swart referred to the Vuelta as "simply an add-on" following Pogacar's Tour training program, and stressed "mental freshness" over the physiological benefits of another altitude camp. It's worth pointing out here that Pogacar also scouted a bunch of Vuelta climbs at his pre-Tour altitude camp in the Sierra. He spent some time in Slovenia and supported his girlfriend at the Tour de France Femmes before doing a small training block.
Pogacar's primary rivals at the Vuelta will be four-time winner Primoz Roglic, Felix Gall, Richard Carapaz, and Oscar Onley. All those guys are great riders with impressive achievements. None of them are anywhere close to a fully torqued-up Pogacar, which means the operative dynamic of the race is fully wrapped up in the matter of how torqued-up Pogacar will turn out to be. If he's uncompromised, he'll win by 10 minutes. But racing the Tour-Vuelta double is a considerable burden, especially given how punishing this year's course is, and this will be a serious physical challenge.
