Mr. Nagelsmann, Tear Down This Meat Wall!

For the first time in history, Germany has lost a penalty shootout at the World Cup. A highly anticipated potential round of 16 matchup between Germany and France has been put on ice, and instead it is Paraguay that advanced on Monday, after a 1-1 draw turned into a 4-3 shootout victory for the South Americans. Paraguay followed the underdog script to perfection, scoring first and then frustrating, blocking, and clattering into the Germans around every corner, spoiling a dream matchup for the neutrals in favor of a dream outcome in itself.

Entering Monday's game, Germany held the advantage in almost every part of the field. FIFA's 12th-ranked side had better, more skilled attackers, a hard-working midfield, and an untested yet talented backline. (If there was one place on the field where Paraguay could have contested, it was at goalie, which did play a big role by the end.) But there is of course a reason why they play the games, and these countries engaged in riveting gladiatorial combat, in which the general rhythm was the same for 90 minutes of regulation. Germany would hold the ball for a long time, its vaunted attackers would get around, but not into, the Paraguayan box, and time and time again, the Paraguayan defense would stifle them. It was mesmerizing to watch, the way that this Paraguay team, so heralded for its rugged defending prior to the 4-1 loss to the United States in the opening match, lived up to its reputation by giving Germany hell when it came time for the favorites to try to score.

In fact, it would be Paraguay that would strike first. Despite having so little of the ball, Paraguay had a plan: Hit as hard as possible on counters, win set pieces and corners, then try to win from there. Lo and behold, in the 42nd minute, after Germany cleared a corner, Paraguay was able to recycle possession, get the ball back out to Miguel Almirón, and let him work the ball into open space. He did just that, giving Matías Galarza enough room to lob a cross to the far post where all 5-foot-8 of Julio Enciso headed it past Manuel Neuer:

Having just seen its CONMEBOL brethren Brazil come back from a 1-0 first-half deficit to win 2-1 in stoppage time, Paraguay surely came into the halftime break figuring it needed either a second goal or the defensive performance of a lifetime to win this match. It didn't quite get either. Paraguay continued to grant Germany possession and the half-chances on goal that came with it, biding its time for more counter-attack and set-piece opportunities. Same gameplan, then, but on tired legs, and it didn't take long for Germany to equalize in the second half. In the 54th minute, Kai Havertz sort of back-headed a cross from Florian Wirtz just past keeper Orlando Gill and into the far post, continuing his streak of scoring in now five straight World Cup matches.

It's bizarre to see an equalizing goal not really change anything in a match, but Paraguay simply stuck to its guns, hoping to either nick another goal out of nowhere or just play for extra time and penalties. Which is pretty much exactly what happened. The second half and most of extra time continued the general pattern of the match. Germany got more and more frustrated in its attacks, whipping in desperation crosses that were mostly cleared away, or shooting with at least two Paraguayan defenders between the ball and the goal. The results were downright depressing. From Havertz's goal until the end of extra time, Germany outshot Paraguay 16-3, but seven of those 16 shots were blocked, and three more were off target. Only six got through on target, but Gill wasn't really threatened, until he very much was.

The flashpoint of the match came in the 102nd minute. Off a Germany corner, Jonathan Tah appeared to score what would surely have been the winner, outleaping Paraguay's defense and finishing with a header just high enough to beat Gill, who was strangely out of position to go for a save. The reason he was out of position became clear upon replay: German center back Waldemar Anton had tussled with the goalie and knocked him down. Or at least touched him enough to convince Gill to dive to the ground, one or the other, you be the judge:

Germany fans will argue that the contact was too soft to merit a foul, and definitely shouldn't have been VAR'd after being given as a goal in real time, but everyone knows that goalies are protected more than others, and any contact on a set piece with the netminder risks a foul. I can't blame Anton for his choice to set a pick on Gill, as he was simply employing the "meat wall" strategy that became a hot topic in the Premier League this past season thanks to Arsenal's, shall we say, creative occupation of space on corners. Essentially, players on the attacking team cram the six-yard box with bodies in an attempt to form the aforementioned meat wall, which impedes the goalie's movement and makes it hard to either come out to punch the ball or get into position for a save. Anton's pick wasn't as sneaky as the best ones tend to be, but the meat wall had been so successful even with contact on the goalie that I can't blame him for trying it. I sure am glad that referee Jalal Jayed, with an assist from VAR, ruled it out, though. Weak foul or not, I hate the meat wall and feel like it should be punished if a player even gets remotely close to fouling the goalie.

Anyway, pardon the rant, let's get to the penalties. Gill, and his teammates for that matter, looked supremely confident heading into spot kicks. Perhaps he believed he had a good read on the German kickers' patterns from film study, or perhaps he knew his 6-foot-6 build would help him keep out penalties if he dove the right way. Whatever the reason for the confidence, it immediately paid off. On the first kick of the shootout, Havertz stuttered into a weak shot, allowing Gill to get his trailing right hand on it as he dove to his left.

The next five penalties went by without any surprises: three converted for Paraguay and two for Germany. Then Newcastle United's Nick Woltemade took his turn. If I was annoyed at Havertz for doing the stutter run-up (a technique I hate, mostly for aesthetic reasons), I was flabbergasted by Woltemade's hesitant, leaning power-walk to the ball. Predictably, he got no force on the shot, and Gill once again saved it to his left.

That left Paraguay with two kicks to win it. The Guaraníes merely had to convert one of the two, or have Gill save a German one, to advance. Paraguay botched both chances. First, Antonio Sanabria nailed his shot wide-left of the goal, and then Fabián Balbuena hit his too softly to Neuer's left, and the 40-year-old made the save.

Luckily for Paraguay, Germany then went against another of my penalty beliefs: Do not, unless absolutely necessary, let your center backs go in a shootout. Arsenal learned this lesson the hard way at the Champions League final in May, and now Germany is going home because Tah stepped up and rocketed his penalty about 25 rows into the crowd. I mean, this wasn't even remotely close:

Given another chance to seal it and advance into the round of 16, Paraguay made no more mistakes: José Canale (before anyone yells at me, yes, he is a center back; exception that proves the rule, or something) hit the best spot-kick of the shootout, roofing his penalty to Neuer's left and sending Germany home early for the third straight World Cup.

Meanwhile, Paraguay showed the world what it couldn't against the USMNT in the opener: This is a nasty and effective defense with just enough firepower in attack to give big teams a run for their money. Even after conceding a goal with up to 70 more minutes to play, Paraguay merely buckled down and kept doing its thing, confident that it could stop a German attack that had put up 9 goals in its first two games before a 2-1 loss to Ecuador in a group-stage finale that had no real stakes for Germany. Like Ecuador had, Paraguay beat Germany by frustrating and choking the life out of its attack, and some big saves from Gill both in open play and in the shootout were enough to send Paraguay into the round of 16 on the wings of the biggest upset of the 2026 World Cup yet.