Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
Ray: Well, Iz, you taught me a thing or two about Ol’ Dabo, and now we have to start worrying about him diagramming plays on wet cocktail napkins in Washington with Tommy Tuberville. He seems more like the visitor's-pass type than the one to actually win an election, which he cannot do in South Carolina while people still view him as yesterday’s phenom. But guess who beat him to the cardboard boxes? Mike Gundy, who was once 40, but is now 58 and on his own time, after leading the Oklahoma State program he built from the ground floor back to the ground floor. Losing to Tulsa was known to be a terrible idea the last time it happened 30 years ago, but that was when the state was taking a few years off from college football. Now guys get cracked at the drop of a pass because football wants to be more like soccer, where if you go 1-1-1, you’re automatically on the hot seat. College football will achieve its truest state when every team that does not win the national championship fires its coach.
The money matters because people can now see the money in broad daylight, and they get snippy when the game gets that naked. So the next trick for us to figure out who gets done next. (Dabo Swinney, we presume, will simply ascend into heaven if he decides to forgo the hell of Congress.) I’d hazard a guess at Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton, only because his team isn’t swell, he’s been at it for more than a decade, and the security of coaching tenure is at an all-time low. I’d prefer to be wrong, because being a ghoul is no way to go through one’s day. Not that we’re necessarily averse to that, mind you.
Israel: The money being so openly and transparently out there does make me wonder something about the false premise of the "student-athlete." At what dollar amount does a college kid stop being seen as a college kid? One of the things we don’t talk about with professional athletes, or entertainers of any kind, is that in exchange for the enormous amount of money they make, a whole lot of people feel they now have some kind of ownership stake in their success or failure. And as money is infused into these programs, coaching does become more tenuous, but so does playing. College kicker tomfoolery isn't as whimsical when rosters cost over $20 million. Every bumbled snap or errant pass comes with so much more importance. You can say it’s part of the gamble, but there’s no reason to believe these moneyed jerks won’t try to optimize every single position in football, and that’s only one of the scary scenarios in which this arms race could change the sport.
And now, the games.
Florida State at Virginia – Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Finally, we can talk about the Noles. Football’s most aggravating program is in an Up Year, at least for the moment. Thomas Castellanos has turned out to be an infusion of energy and excitement for this offense, and the defense is back to playing hard-nosed, competent tackle football. After bursting out of the gate with a victory over Alabama, FSU has done exactly what it’s supposed to: completely dominate lesser competition. While Virginia (3-1) is a step up from the cupcakes, the result shouldn’t be too much different if they’re the contender they claim to be. The Cavaliers have a potent enough offense, but they can be completely gashed defensively, particularly in the backfield. If Castellanos doesn’t rack up the air yards, that would be way more concerning for the Seminoles than noteworthy on Virginia’s end. – Israel
USC at Illinois – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Illinois was reintroduced to reality last week when it got hammered by Indiana, 63-10. Now the Illini get USC at home in a game that will either repair their wounded pride (they remain a top-25 team, despite losing by 53) or reintroduce themselves to the Earth’s unforgiving crust. The Trojans are averaging 52.5 points across their first four games, and with their next two against Michigan and Notre Dame, the power in the name is at stake here, for whatever that may be worth in the new world order. If Illinois wins, the Big Ten’s Western expansion could have stopped at Eugene. – Ray
Utah State at Vanderbilt – Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network
The Commodores last won their first five games 17 years ago, so this is kind of a big deal, particularly given that if you blink too slowly, their next four games are against Alabama, LSU, Missouri and Texas. The lesson? Enjoy what you can while you can, because the waiter always brings the check before you’ve finished that last beer. Utah State has won its three games comfortably but got smoked by Texas A&M, so this will be a good but reasonable test for Bronco Mendenhall as he tries to resurrect the Aggies from their fate as the de facto invitee to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. – Ray
Ohio State at Washington – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
This will be a litmus test for how good Washington is this year. They’ve looked dominant against opponents supposed to make them look dominant, and Ohio State will be forced to make the extensive travel to the Huskies' home stadium, adjusting to their time zone and air. All favorable points in Washington’s corner. Julian Sayin has played well for Ohio State, but he’s still going into a hostile environment, and Ryan Day can’t keep the training wheels on him forever. This game will be dictated by how well Washington can run against the Buckeyes, but I expect Ohio State to outlast the Huskies in the end. – Israel
LSU at Ole Miss – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
A big tantrum game here for someone—possibly Brian Kelly, based on his general temperament. Then again, Lane Kiffin has never been one to shy away from making a spectacle of himself either, so this will end up being a coach’s game for the people who like coaches’ games the most: coaches. That, and defenses in charge of pace and tone, which is where LSU has its most decisive advantage. – Ray
Auburn at Texas A&M – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Texas A&M showed a lot in a win over Notre Dame, and Auburn somehow showed a lot in a loss to Oklahoma. Both teams are tough outs, and while Auburn has the better rushing attack, Texas A&M has the better quarterback, and therefore a better chance of coming away victorious. This will almost certainly be a game that comes down to the heroics of Marcel Reed in the fourth quarter, but before then I expect a lot of chaotic, tug-of-war football. – Israel
Indiana at Iowa – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock
People are glomming onto the notion that Indiana (4-0) is more than just a carefully assembled schedule, but Iowa is still Iowa, and will be until they get Penn State in mid-October, and Oregon two weeks after that. Someone’s fantasies are going to get roughed up here. While you may guess for yourselves what Hoosier and Hawkeye fantasies actually are, this game is better than average for the schedule before us, even if all you’re truly interested in is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, this week’s Heisman favorite now that Oklahoma’s John Mateer, last week’s favorite, is injured. – Ray
Tennessee at Mississippi State – Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network
Hey, Mississippi State is undefeated! Look at that. Take a picture, because it’s probably coming to an end on Saturday. I tend to be extremely careful of bold predictions, but there is nothing to indicate that this Bulldogs squad can keep up with Tennessee’s offense. Even in the most impressive win of a 4-0 start, they squeaked it out against a decent but not exceptional Arizona State team, and the difference there might have been the cowbells coming from the crowd. Can Mississippi State cowbell their way to another win against Tennessee? That’s probably their best bet. – Israel
Arizona at Iowa State – Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
This might be the most fun game of the day. Iowa State is like a corner dice game: You don’t know what’s about to happen from play to play. So far, these are two evenly matched teams, with Iowa State’s defense maybe providing the closest thing to a separator. I also trust Cyclones coach Matt Campbell a whole lot more than Arizona's Brent Brennan, and how can I not put my faith in a quarterback named Rocco Becht? That’s a folk-hero name if I’ve ever heard one. – Israel
Oregon at Penn State – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: A James Franklin-coached Penn State team is on Fraud Alert. The Nittany Lions have benefitted from their opening schedule of games, and now they get their first conference matchup against what is expected to be one of the best teams in the sport. As usual, Penn State has every opportunity to win this game: They have a good QB in Drew Allar, Franklin knows how to get great players all over the field, and it’s a White Out game at home. But like the Baltimore Ravens, James Franklin has to prove he can win a big game before I ever trust him to do it. – Israel
Alabama at Georgia – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Going against Oregon-Penn State is counterprogramming of the most brazen kind—that is, if college football was about counterprogramming. This is a stiff test for Georgia but a stiffer one for Alabama, which already wants head coach Kalen DeBoer to pick up the prefix “ex” in his title, while Kirby Smart is, well, you know. Neither Ty Simpson nor Gunner Stockton are particularly electrifying as quarterbacks, but as stats go, EQ (electrification quotient) doesn’t hold much weight against DWKYAON (Did We Kick Your Ass Or Not). The kicked ass goes to the fringe of the playoff chase, and in DeBoer’s case, maybe the edge of Gundyhood. – Ray
Massachusetts at Missouri – Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
One of two unbeaten vs. always beaten matchups on the card, and the only reason to get involved at all is to see if Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy can put up gamer numbers against hopeless UMass. I mean, if that’s your idea of a good time. We’re just offering choices here; your decisions are based solely on your level of sicko. In other words, everything we type is merely a manifestation of your fault. – Ray
App State at Boise State – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1
This should be a definitive win for Boise State. Ever since they were dismantled by USF, the Broncos have beaten up on Eastern Washington and Air Force as expected. The running game still isn’t very dynamic without Ashton Jeanty, but with App State’s QB AJ Swann suddenly becoming pick-happy, the Broncos have a chance to continue building themselves back into a playoff worthy team. That said, I still think this will be a high-scoring affair. This is also the fifth game we've covered that starts around 7 p.m., so Mad Dog's anger is justified in this case. – Israel
BYU at Colorado – Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
If Colorado were terrible, that might actually be better for Deion Sanders. The fact that they’re middling and tepid makes him trying to muster what Prime-ness he can all the more uninteresting. He has to resort to talking about his son Shedeur’s draft-day decisions for virality. BYU (3-0) will almost certainly stomp all over the Buffs, but maybe that’s what makes it worth watching for a lot of people. – Israel
Nobody at Clemson – All day long
Dabo Swinney will be in church all weekend in preparation for next week's game against Bill Belichick, so please leave him be. – Ray
