Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
Ray: Brent Pry was technically the second coach to be fired this year (UCLA's canning of DeShaun Foster beat Pry's by a few hours) after Virginia Tech lost at home to Old Dominion. The athletic director, whose name you don’t need to know, said the school will have “a financial, organizational and leadership plan that will rapidly position [the program] to be competitive with the best ... The new framework for college sports will be fully established for next season, so this is the time to make a major move.” In other words, why piss away money on this guy? On the other hand, why not fire him last year and start the grand plan this past spring? Because the Hokies beat Virginia? Well, someone believes in rivalry games, anyway. But it’s TCT—Testy Coaches Time—where Brian Kelly acts like a petulant child over a question after a win, and Dabo Swinney says if Clemson’s tired of winning, the school can replace him at their own risk. It’s just one more reason why New Football is better. It makes everyone crazier faster.
Israel: I think you buried the lede there on ol' Dabo, Ray. While it's not exactly news that Swinney got snippy and self-aggrandizing with the press, what is interesting is the way he presented that snippiness. As Kelly's tantrum shows, coaches speak to their teams through the press, but they speak to their universities that way as well. It is well established that Clemson has been slow to adapt to college football's new era of NIL and transfer-portal madness. Swinney has treated the sport's evolution as a threat to his dictatorial power over his program and his players' lives. So it is a little interesting then, in the midst of yet another disappointing Clemson season that was hyped to be a potential championship run, that Swinney immediately starts hypothesizing about the school getting rid of him.
I mean, if that's not the most "... Sir, this is a Wendy's" type of projection, I'm not sure what could be. Even posing his own firing as a hypothetical implies something about its actual possibility. It would make sense if not everyone at Clemson was happy about Dabo's stubbornness, though I think he's done too much there to ever be fired unceremoniously anytime soon. Regardless, he is clearly feeling the heat, and I imagine he's only going to get sweatier as the season continues, relying on memories of championships to keep him in good standing. But that's the thing about the old days ...
And now, the games.
Iowa at Rutgers – Friday 8:00 p.m. ET on Fox
Rutgers makes you laugh. Rutgers in the Big Ten makes you howl with glee. Rutgers against Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan makes you snicker with risible fake pity. And yet they are 3-0 for the fifth consecutive season, and they haven’t been 4-0 since . . . uhh, last year. They don’t close well, that much is true, but nobody thinks they start well either, and that is demonstrably false. Greg Schiano might be a tightly wrapped twitch factory, but Rutgers is his happy place for whatever reason, and while teams of Rutgers’ pedigree typically tire from all that uphill climbing, this does not feel undoable. Kirk Ferentz has lasted at Iowa long enough to have more wins than any other coach ever, and these Hawkeyes like to win 3-2 if at all possible, so it’s profoundly unlikely that this will be a fun watch. But we should say this while we have the chance: How ‘bout them Scarlet Knights? – Ray
Texas Tech at Utah – Saturday 12:00 p.m. ET on Fox
Tech has run up scores on Arkansas Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State, so there is no infallible guide to how good they are, but playing in oxygen-deprived Salt Lake City against a standard nasty Utes team will tell us what we need to know about the Red Raiders. Conversely, Utah has run up scores on UCLA, Cal Poly SLO and Wyoming, so we know exactly as much about these guys. One of these teams will be exposed, probably by scoring only 13 points, but you may start to have vague aspirations for the winner, and since Utah is playing at home, we have to lean toward them. It is not a lean with any staying power, but it removes one of the few Big 12 powers from Utah’s windshield. – Ray
Arkansas at Memphis – Saturday 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
I don't know what to make of either of these two programs. Sam Pittman has done some good things for the Razorbacks, but their defense is pretty rough and their offense isn't lighting the world on fire. On the flip side, Memphis is always a tough out, and they have won all their home games against out-of-conference power five opponents since 2015. They have a good rushing attack lead by Sutton Smith and while Arkansas isn't great against the run, they're much worse against a good passing attack, which it's still not clear Memphis has with quarterback Brendon Lewis. Arky's Taylen Green will dictate how this game goes for the Razorbacks but in a toss up situation, I think Memphis will be ready for a street fight at home. – Israel
SMU at TCU – Saturday 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
I do not think either of these teams are serious contenders, but Kevin Jennings's arm gives SMU a high-scoring offense, and we are seemingly in one of those random good TCU seasons, so I expect a marathon of a game where whoever has the ball last wins. I kinda expect that team to be TCU, and while this will technically be the best team they’ve played so far, Josh Hoover and Kevorian Barnes seem like surer bets than an SMU team still figuring itself out. – Israel
Syracuse at Clemson - Saturday 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Florida at Miami - Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Here we have, in the Florida Gators and the Clemson Tigers, two teams with the same problems: preseason hype that has already been dashed, coaches who might be feeling the water rise past their necks, and a whole lot of room for things to get even worse. Of the two matchups, Clemson has it ostensibly easier. But Syracuse, like Georgia Tech, is a frisky team that suddenly smells blood in the water. This still has all the makings of a Clemson bounce-back home win, but if they can’t look competent now then it's only going to get worse.
As for Florida, last week’s loss to LSU was a heartbreaker, primarily because they could’ve won that game just with good quarterback play from DJ Lagway. I expect no such thing here when they face what has looked like one of the best teams in the sport. And while I always suspect Carson Beck will play down to his competition, the pieces around him have been great so far. Miami is playing tough, dominant football; even better, they are playing like a team with its own identity and not just reheated nostalgia for the '80s. The only thing that could get in the way of a rout is Mario Cristobal coaching decisions, which, believe me, is not out of the realm here. – Israel
Oregon State at Oregon – Saturday 3:00 p.m. ET on BTN
Washington at Washington State – Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS
These were staples of the last weekend in November, classic rivalry games (The Civil War in Oregon, the Apple Cup in Washington) that gave the regular season meaning for wizened old alums who had trouble remembering where the car was parked after the game. That is no longer, obviously, because college football is now a strip joint with marching bands in the lobby, and local staples like this are dumped willy nilly into otherwise enfeebled broadcast windows with Ball State-UConn and Boise State-Air Force. These two games are noteworthy because they are the entire Pac-12 schedule for the weekend, but otherwise Ducks-Beavs is just a referendum on the margin of Oregon’s victory. The Ducks have lost once to OSU at Eugene since 1993, and that was a double-overtime defeat in 2007. Plus, Dan Lanning called out his lads after last weekend’s easy win at Northwestern for mailing in the fourth quarter, so this has a gratuitous rout feel to it for more than the obvious reasons. As for Washington and Washington State, well, yeah, sure, why not? – Ray
Auburn at Oklahoma – Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
I do not know what to make of Auburn this year, but that’s also part of what makes them Auburn. This could be a year they go undefeated and then blow the Iron Bowl in embarrassing fashion, or one where they end up with four or five losses, inexplicably win the Iron Bowl, and end up in the SEC championship game. Football is just a dice game for the Tigers. They get their first real test on Saturday with their opening SEC matchup against … Oklahoma, which is still a hilarious statement. Oklahoma looks like a legit contender behind the big arm and bigger gumption of John Mateer, and they are favored here for that reason. Brent Venables’s defense is always tough, and Oklahoma, between this game and the Red River showdown in two weeks against Make-A-Wish QB Arch Manning, have a chance to put the entire sport on notice that they are true championship material. – Israel
Michigan at Nebraska – Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Michigan’s Bryce Underwood gets another big test in his rookie campaign when he duels the No. 1 Patrick Mahomes cosplayer, Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola. Matt Rhule's Nebraska looks legit so far in his third year, but no amount of haircuts and headbands can make Raiola actually play like his idol. His arm is decent but he has no athleticism. Meanwhile, Underwood has the talent and athleticism, but either through his own novice or the coaches' conservative play-calling, he has been a bit of a fawn when things get tight. Underwood is going to have to show he has learned something from that Oklahoma beatdown in order for Michigan to be victorious. – Israel
North Carolina at UCF – Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Let’s be honest here: We all just want to see if Bill Belichick’s team is going to get squashed like a bug again. That and maybe more Jordon Hudson cam. – Israel
Duquesne at Akron – Saturday 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Akron has yet to win this year, and this feels like the Zips’ do-or-die game in what is otherwise a typically dire season. In fairness, they have only one more defeat than Notre Dame and as many wins, and every game after this is MACtion, so they can still dream. But let’s start with baby steps. Very tiny baby kitty steps, the kind you can barely hear. But what the hell, every game is on television now, so what else you got? Delaware-FIU? Yeah, go with that one. – Ray
South Carolina at Missouri – Saturday 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
LaNorrris Sellers left last week’s game against Vanderbilt due to a head injury, and while there’s been no confirmation, he is expected to play against Mizzou Saturday. It'll be interesting to see how he rebounds, especially because this team can only go as far as Sellers, one of the premier QBs in the FBS this season, can take them. Although the Missouri Tigers lost their starting QB, they’ve still looked good in early play. I expect a big game from their running back Ahmad Hardy, and then there’s Beau Pribula, who I have no real thoughts about; I just wanted to bring up that the Mizzou QB’s name is Beau Pribula. I am hoping we get a properly goofy, Wile E. Coyote–type game from the SEC also-rans. – Israel
ASU at Baylor – Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Despite a returning Sam Leavitt, ASU is not the team it was last year without the heroics of Cam Skattebo. Despite being Baylor, Baylor is good enough to score a lot of points. That is what this should ultimately come down to: who can light up the scoreboard with their allotted time. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson has already thrown for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs in three games, and I don’t see any reason to believe ASU’s defense can keep him from piling up the stats. Leavitt is going to have to show that he can keep up. – Israel
Michigan State at USC – Saturday 11:00 p.m. ET on Fox
This is SO going past midnight on the West Coast, which means it’s going past 3 a.m. in Lansing. That’s all you need to know—Fox is now putting games on opposite Michigan Poetry Today. Why not just play this bad boy in Guam? The national implication, to the extent that there is one, is that USC winning would enhance Notre Dame’s strength of schedule argument come playoff time, which the Irish almost certainly will need given the way they’ve been going. – Ray
Fresno State at Hawaii – Midnight on your stream of choice
Nobody at UCLA
Foster could not have been fired fast enough for Bruins fans, but that’s the danger of having a losing streak going into a bye week. It gives the alums time to think, and the more they think, the faster they convince themselves that they can stomach the buyout after all. Foster gets $7 million for his souvenir cardboard box, which became less expensive in donors' minds with every touchdown they allowed New Mexico. The relocation to the Big Ten has been a complete and utter disaster for UCLA, which needed to leave the Pac-12 because the athletic department was running a nine-figure deficit, so there is some level of West Coast schadenfreude here along the lines of “God punishes by giving people what they wish for.” But since none of you can remember the name of the new coach (yeah, go on, look it up, we won’t judge), it ultimately isn’t about Foster at all. Still . . . New Mexico? – Ray
