Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
Ray: We're in the middle of bye season now, which means some of your favorites—Texas, UCLA, Duke, Utah and others—are receiving well-deserved weeks off that will allow their fan bases to forget who they hate the most. Well, not forget, really, but maybe forget to mention for at least a few days. No coaches have been fired yet, but now that we're in October the time is rapidly approaching where a lot of professional Football Men will be given an opportunity to start spending more time with their families. Apologies to those families for what will befall them.
The rest of the week, though, should be about small moves among big teams, as the upward funnel begins to gain suction and the power teams begin to sort themselves out. Margin of victory will start mattering less as simple victory begins to suffice, and the number of undefeated teams will shrink from its current total of 22 (out of 138, roughly 15 percent). The most intriguing of those teams might be North Dakota State, freshly escaped from dispensing ritual thumpings in the Missouri Valley and released into the allegedly more hostile environs of the Mountain West. They may even make a case for a playoff berth, provided the sentient oil stains on the committee deign to notice them. For the moment, they have to worry about Wyoming, as do we all.
Next week, there will be games on every day but Monday; this will be true throughout the month and most of November, too. First, the Sun Belt gives avoiding the weekend a try, and then All-Day MACtion returns, and you all know what means by now. That's right, kids, the UMass Hype Train, a concept that primarily exists within this column, will chug its way towards becoming an actual thing, as they try to go from 0-for-everyone to everyone-and-0. Beat that for snicks and giggles, you stuffed chihuahuas.
Israel: I'll be honest. Defector is at its annual retreat this week and I'm burnt out brainwise and have no overarching theme for this week's Watch Guide. So instead, here is my script for the Sopranos, if Tony used therapy to complain about college football.
INT. MELFI'S OFFICE - DAY
Tony sits in the therapy chair across from Dr. Melfi. He fiddles with his shoes as he searches for something to say, or just waits for a prompt from Melfi. But she just watches him solemnly for a while before finally speaking.
MELFI: So. What's been bothering you lately?
Tony hesitates. Staring past Melfi before relenting.
TONY: I tell ya, one thing—this whole "protect college sports" garbage. That bill thing they're shoving in our faces. It's all a fuckin' distraction. Every commercial break now with it.
MELFI: You yourself, you've certainly recognized that college sports is in chaos right now.
TONY: I mean, don't get me wrong. Every time I see one of these guys on the Instagram flashing jewelry and cars, I think, yeah maybe this is going too far... but at the same time, I'd be a fuckin' moron to play that game and not get a little action for myself.
MELFI: Somewhat progressive of you
Tony sits, stewing and increasingly annoyed.
TONY: Lemme tell ya something. In my day it was about football. You played for the love of the game and you coached for the love of it. Ya coach was just some guy living near the school. Now its all about fuckin' money! If that's the case then let everyone get a piece!
MELFI: You're angry.
TONY: Yeah you try watching Rutgers play football and not get angry ... and this fuckin stunod Lane Kiffin makes more money failing every time. You act like that on the street, you don't even wanna know...
Melfi stays silent. She knows she's touched a nerve but she is hesitant to push further.
TONY: I don't even know why I give a shit. I just won a grip of money betting on USC to blow another one. Easiest money I made all year and I'm still depressed.
MELFI: There's that D word...
Tony stiffens up, avoiding eye contact with Melfi.
MELFI: Do you have qualms about the way you're making money?
TONY: On the street?
MELFI: No. By betting on Oregon football.
TONY: Well, I don't recommend it ... The problem these days though; you can't start any good point-shaving operations anymore with all the laws in place. The closest thing left is Florida State football, but who wants to deal with those assholes?
MELFI: Sort of like Leo Tolstoy's opening line for Anna Karenina. All happy families are alike, but each unhappy family is unhappy in their own way. The same goes for football pograms.
TONY (pretending to understand): Yeah ... Leo something and the Anaconda.
MELFI: We're gonna have to stop here.
END SCENE
And now onto the games:
Pitt at Virginia Tech — Friday, 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN
Two undefeated yet unranked and barely commented upon teams get whatever spotlight the Friday night college football games can provide. The winner gets to begin plotting ways to beat Miami—Pitt's shot is in three weeks, VPI's in seven. We're not optimistic on either count, but our feelings on the matter are, as always, profoundly irrelevant to either the event or the mammals involved. The winner will get some notice in the polls, even if it is only the Others Receiving Votes Index. Pitt has the most intriguing player in the game in quarterback Mason Heintschel, who claims the title by a nose over Virginia Tech running back Jeffrey Overton. The Hokies at home are always buckets of no fun. — Ray
Penn State at Northwestern — Friday, 8:00 p.m. EST on FOX
Northwestern announced itself as the most dangerous team in football for the moment in a surprisingly close loss at Indiana last week, with a genuinely dynamic quarterback. They're an atomic weapon that seems capable of anything on the field, good or bad. At least on Friday nights. And who doesn’t deserve to get humbled more than Penn State? Of course now that I’ve said all that none of it will happen but a boy can still dream, right? — Israel
(7) Alabama at (16) Mississippi State — Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EST on ABC
We believe the only ways for Kalen DeBoer to get Tide fans off his back is by winning the national championship, the Nobel Prize in Physics, the Eurovision Song Contest, and getting Paul Finebaum exiled to the Western Sahara. He can't do the first yet, probably has no chance on the second and third, but the fourth is not only doable but highly intriguing as a concept. For this weekend, he needs a better game from Keelon Russell than Jeff Lebby gets from Kamario Taylor, but quarterback battle aside the real fun is going to be Bulldog running back Fluff Bothwell. If things go well he'll get the ball 30 times, which means 30 chances to hear the words "Fluff" and "Bothwell." — Ray
(3) Notre Dame at North Carolina — Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN
Well, at least this will be over before lunchtime fully ends in the east, and just after breakfast on the West Coast, though the gods only know why you'd be watching instead of focusing on your meal. Expect a righteous beatdown, and stay for Bill Belichick's postgame presser in which he tests the concept of speaking in negative decibels. — Ray
UCF at (20) Houston — Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2
Did you know that Scott Frost is back at UCF? It’s always fun when a coach has to put their tail between their legs after getting shitcanned elsewhere, like Bobby Petrino or … Jimbo Fisher? They’re not a bad team, either, but I don’t know that they have the firepower to see Houston right now. — Israel
Michigan at Minnesota — Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EST on FOX
Michigan got hoisted by its own petard last weekend and continues to show itself as the worst 3-1 team in college football. Do I have faith that Minnesota and crazy ass P.J. Fleck can challenge them, though? Absolutely not. Neither of these trick-or-treat teams has shown any consistency from game to game. Either Minnesota can “row that boat” or Bryce Underwood will have to row it for them. — Israel
Vanderbilt at (2) Georgia — Saturday, 12:45 p.m. EST on SEC Network
Vandy used its "pull one out of your arse" play already this year, and Georgia isn't likely to let them get close enough to attempt a second. Truthfully, our interest here is almost totally dependent upon how long 'Bama and Miss State stays close. But s probably the second best of the lunchtime games, if only to see how much difficulty the Commodores can create for a clearly superior Georgia team. The Bulldog defense will almost certainly lay hands on Vandy's modest offense in a comprehensive way. — Ray
(8) Florida at (25) Missouri — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST on ABC
This is not as close as the numbers inside the parentheses indicate, but it does make a compelling argument that it isn't as hard to find a coach who can fix what ails you if you throw enough money ($30-$40 million by most estimates) into the business. Jon Sumrall might be the leading candidate for Coach of the Year if not for Joe Harasymiak at UMass (hey, if you don't buy that, get your own half-a-blog), but the real tests will come after next week when the Gators play at Texas and then at home against Georgia. The schedule eases up after that, but in fairness the only way the schedule could get harder is if Florida got dropped into the NFC West. — Ray
(5) Ohio State at (14) Iowa — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST on CBS
Jeremiah Smith's year after four games is probably not sustainable, only because we don't think he'll finish the regular season with 99 catches for 2,051 yards and 21 touchdowns. It's also not sustainable because Iowa doesn't let anyone score by throwing the ball. But it could be sustainable if the Hawkeyes' defensive rep was inflated by low-scoring shutout wins over Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa. The point is, Smith's worth the watch if only to see if Smith is worth the watch. As with any game involving Iowa, it will largely be a slog otherwise. — Ray
Louisville at NC State — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST on ACC Network
Louisville blew the cash last weekend and lost a game they should’ve won if they wanna be taken seriously. And NC State … well, they’re NC State. They will provide plenty of chances for Louisville to win this game. — Israel
Virginia at Florida State — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2
Look, just get it over with… — Israel
Cal at UNLV — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST on CBSSN
This is only for us, as our cousins are going to Las Vegas for the game. They're not going because they like Las Vegas, or gambling, or shows, or Saturday's projected 98-degree heat, but because they like Cal. They probably wouldn't go at all if the game were at open-air Sam Boyd Stadium—just because they like Cal football doesn't mean they're idiots—but traveling to a town you don't much enjoy to watch Cal's football team is not exactly an educational endorsement under any conditions. — Ray
Eastern Michigan at UMass — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST on ESPN+
The case is building for our lads to lock up their place in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl, but they've already won hearts and minds in the place that matters second most. That's the coaches poll, where they got more support among the polyester screamers' fraternity than either Oklahoma or Clemson. A win gives the Minutemen their best start since 1975, which of course is also the end of the Spanish-American War as far as any of you would remember. — Ray
Marshall at James Madison — Saturday, 3:45 p.m. EST on ESPNU
The myth is that Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney made James Madison, when it is becoming clearer that JMU made the coaches. Either that, or Billy Napier has cleansed his reputation after the Florida debacle and is back to being the next Mister Fixit at some Power 4 school that needs a new guy in a polo shirt and a boost of donor meddling. Dead presidents always beat dead Supreme Court justices in any reputational showdown, not to mention the fact there are no dead Supreme Court justices with their pictures on money. This could be fun, if only briefly, and the side issue—JMU trying to move from the Sun Belt to the American—isn't nailing you to your couch. — Ray
(24) Kentucky at South Carolina — Saturday, 4:15 p.m. EST on SEC Network
What better way to close the casket on Shane Beamer’s coaching career than having South Carolina's shit handed to him by a suddenly feisty Kentucky team. This is one of those games that will not only highlight how bad things have gotten at a bad program, but also the potent hopium that comes from seeing a good hire like Will Stein seemingly set everything right at Kentucky. Of course, Kentucky could take their fancy new ranking and use it to throw up all over themselves in a prove-it moment, showing once and for all that they still got that Kentucky in them. — Israel
(4) Miami at Clemson — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EST on ABC
The Canes are building their case as the best team in the country, but we're likelier to hear the broadcasters focusing on Clemson. This is because Dabo Swinney's uncertain future apparently moves the needle more than we know in some core demo or other. Still, Darian Mensah is the best watch in football right now, and that may include the NFL. — Ray
Washington at (18) USC — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EST on NBC
Not only did USC and Lincoln Riley blow the big prize yet again last week, they also quickly turned into a team that's more hateable than good. After Desman Stephens laid a dirty hit on Oregon QB Dante Moore and followed it by peacocking along the USC sidelines, which no one on that sideline had the sense to put a stop to, USC has emerged as the season's reigning Evil Clown, and not for the usual reasons that a rich school in Southern California might claim that title. To do all that and then lose anyway is true Evil Clown behavior. Washington is more than capable of maintaining the pile-on and crushing this soft, flashy team’s playoff hopes for another season. — Israel
YOUR OBERLIN MINUTE
Losing 79-0 to Washington-St. Louis last week is not what you want, but it isn't the issue either given that Oberlin is, well, Oberlin. The true hazard for the future of this segment was finding out that there is a new contender for their place in our hearts and spleens. That would be the Eureka College Red Devils of the Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference, handily right near Oberlin's North Coast Athletic Conference alphabetically, whose 0-4 record is seasoned nicely by having been outscored 130-0. Oberlin has already packed a safety and a touchdown into its season, and our loyalty remains steadfast even if it means we occasionally look at others just out of sheer perversity. This week, the Fellows Of Yeo travel to DePauw in search of the elusive close game; sadly, the prediction markets aren't wading with any bettable numbers, making this one of the few contests of any kind in any endeavor that can say that. Ah, well. We live as always in the total absence of hope. — Ray
