Have you heard the whispers? Jonas Vingegaard just went nuts in Italy, auguring a strong run at a third Tour de France crown and convincing some corners of the peloton that he's got the legs to ride into yellow. Isaac del Toro dominated the Dauphine, giving faint hope to those who would like to see him stage a coup against his team leader. Prodigal French son Paul Seixas has thus far only been slowed by the limits of his own bike handling, putting together a stunning full debut season when he's managed to stay upright. Hell, even the Red Bull guys might have figured out how to execute the Remco Evenepoel-as-super-domestique strategy, a concept that a director laid out for me last year as the ideal way to spring a Tour de France upset. Tadej Pogacar may be the best rider in the world, but that won't stop his rivals from trying him.
All of which is to say that if the dynamic of the Tour de France is cohering into Pogacar vs. the field, and the field is the strongest it's been since Pogacar started winning Tours, he's still the heavy favorite. After a six-week layoff, the world champion returned to racing on Wednesday at the Tour de Suisse. How would he look in his first competitive action since retreating to the monastic refuge of the pre-Tour altitude camp?
As it turns out, distinguishing between race and training camp is somehow actually quite difficult. Pogacar rolled off the front of the peloton with 70 kilometers to go in Stage 1 and put four-and-a-half minutes into all but one of his general classification "rivals," ending the fight for overall victory less than halfway through the first stage and making it clear that he's going to France with the same form that's seen him yawn his way to two straight yellow jerseys. The first stage of one of the two premier Tour de France tune-up races turned into a livestreamed training ride.
Only Pogacar could win a race like this. He popped off the front just ahead of a Cat. 2 climb, and though the 60 kilometers following the Via Buglio was made for a breakaway, it also wasn't so demanding that a solo escapee would have felt good about their chances. Any other solo escapee, that is. With the number of Pogacar solo escapes ticking ever-upward, their inevitability is becoming increasingly self-fulfilling. Other teams see him go and don't even try to reel him back in. What's the point? Unless you have your A-Team and a strong incentive to burn fuel in a chase, better to just let him have his fun and try again another day.
What's interesting to note here is that Pogacar didn't necessarily intend to spend half of this morning's stage all alone out front. "This was definitely not the plan," he said after the race. "But somehow it worked, thanks to the teammates." Pogacar has most of his Tour squad with him in Switzerland, and the tractoresque Nils Politt and Notable Belgian Tim Wellens took turns showing what they can do as pace-setters, making the seemingly innocent first half of the race very demanding. That set the stage for Pogacar and Brandon McNulty to attack for bonus seconds at the intermediate sprint. They were so successful that Pogacar thought he might as well keep riding and see what would happen. "I didn't have radio at that time, so I didn't know what's going on in the back," he said. "Once I knew the gap is quite big, I could set into the rhythm and try to hold it to the finish, which was super long and really hard, but was also at the same time quite technical, so it was really nice to be alone."
The silver lining for those holding out hope for a competitive July is that none of Pogacar's serious rivals are in Switzerland. Riding away from any WorldTour field like this is impressive, but this particular field took the starting line knowing they were collectively racing for second. Primoz Roglic is not a serious challenger, nor is second-place finisher Richard Carapaz and his apparently healed-up ass. It will be different in France. But it might not be different enough to matter.
