You can't say that the Seattle Mariners didn't have their chances Sunday night to clinch a World Series berth. Down 2-0 in the top of the third inning, they had the bases loaded with one out and Cal Raleigh up to bat; he grounded into a double play. Down 4-0 in the top of the fourth inning, they once again loaded the bases with one out, this time with J.P. Crawford up to bat; he, too, grounded into a double play. They had their chances, and they missed them, and it was around the fourth inning that everyone started to think about punting the game: It was time to gird oneself for a Game 7.
If you are a glutton for punishment and/or trying to cope in a roundabout way (e.g., me), you can look at the expected batting averages of both balls hit in play. This is what sabermetrics are really for: generous interpretive application to make yourself feel better or worse, accordingly. On average, teams score 1.61 runs after loading the bases with one out. Raleigh's grounder to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was hit hard, over 100 mph—it had an xBA of .350, or a 35 percent chance of becoming a hit. Crawford's double-play ball could've been a bloop single in another world—it had an xBA of .540.
Of course, this is a grandmother-bicycle situation. The Mariners could've scored five runs, and taken the lead in a game they ended up losing 6-2. They also could've scored their expected 3.22 runs over those two innings, likely knocking Toronto starter Trey Yesavage out of the game, and still been trailing by .78 runs. They could've done what they did, and scored zero. If a team has a rookie pitcher on the ropes in two consecutive innings, and then grounds into a double play in both innings on two decently hit balls, albeit grounders, maybe it's just not their night. That's baseball. That's also what happens when you face a guy whose splitter comes "from the sky" and "is gross."
The pitching match-up was a rerun from the Game 2 that previously had me so optimistic: Yesavage vs. Logan Gilbert. Those with long-term memory will remember that the Mariners offense hit Yesavage well that game. While Yesavage was clearly not untouchable in Game 6 (see the aforementioned bases-loaded situations), he was far crisper, generating twice as many swings and misses, and, importantly, going 5.2 innings so the Blue Jays wouldn't have to dig that deeply into their bullpen.
Those who remember Game 2's fireworks will also remember that, despite the convincing win, Gilbert did not look sharp against the Blue Jays. Last night, Gilbert continued the alarming trend of every Mariners starting pitcher not named Bryce Miller looking, well, like ass. George Kirby gave up eight runs; Luis Castillo only lasted 2.1 innings. Gilbert gave up four runs in four innings and at no point looked in control. The Blue Jays have a very good offense, especially since Guerrero came alive—it was optimistic of Mariners manager Dan Wilson to keep Gilbert in to face Guerrero the third time through, and remains alarmingly distressing to have to be concerned about Ernie Clement and a man named Addison Barger—but with the current state of what elbows are capable of nowadays, it's easier to view pitcher performance as dictating the flow of any given game. It is the wont of a great hitter with a gorgeous swing, like Guerrero, to make you feel any differently, but a hanging curveball is a hanging curveball.
It's also easy to fixate on the things outside of the pitcher-hitter pas de deux that can lose a team a ballgame. Or, to rephrase, the infuriating defensive mistakes, because that's at least an aspect of the game that the players do have the most control over. A possible base here or there, as a ball bounced out of Julio Rodriguez's glove; an out, as Eugenio Suarez made an error; a run, directly scored off a poor throw from Raleigh. Compare that to the well-executed double plays that got the Blue Jays out of two consecutive bases-loaded jams, and, well, it leaves a sour taste.
There is some good news if you're a Mariners fan, and some great news if you're a Blue Jays fan, and some fantastic news if you're Ray Ratto: There will be a Game 7. Wilson saved the bulk of his bullpen for Monday's match, which will be Kirby searching for redemption against Shane Bieber. For Raleigh's and Suarez's struggles last night, it was them who bought the Mariners this extra chance in Game 5, though you'd be forgiven if some other stuff that happened that night overshadowed their own heroics. The Mariners are a little bit more familiar than the Blue Jays with the winner-takes-all match this postseason. Maybe this one won't need 15 innings.
