Jonas Vingegaard's Visma team spent Sunday charging through the infernal heat in a demanding Stage 15 of the Tour de France, and he rewarded their hard work by smashing Marco Pantani's 26-year-old climbing record by more than two minutes. His performance, on a stage with more than 4,800 vertical meters of climbing, was a historical triumph. The only problem was that Vingegaard crossed the finish line more than one minute after Tadej Pogačar had finished celebrating. It was as if he'd put up an 90-point game on the same day Wilt Chamberlain had 100.
Pogačar's dominance is the story of the Tour. The Slovenian won both of this past weekend's climbing stages by a combined 1:47, to extend his overall lead to 3:09. Rather than defending the yellow jersey, he's attacking with it, and when he does something like eject from the peloton on the Pla d'Adet at 22 miles per hour on a nine-percent gradient, it is hard to feel like anything else in the race matters. On the Plateau de Beille, Visma followed the recipe that cooked Pogačar's legs twice before. Vingegaard tends to be picky about when he attacks, but when he does, Pogačar struggles to respond. This time Vingegaard showed a single moment of weakness when he looked back at Pogačar, and the Slovenian punished it immediately.
While Pogačar demands attention, the more interesting way to consider this year's Tour de France is to marvel at how well Vingegaard has been racing despite nearly dying in a ditch in the Basque country in April. His strength and spirit have animated this Tour. Pogačar has been aggressive about building up his lead, but it's out of necessity to ward off Vingegaard, and even then it hasn't always worked. On Stage 11, Pogačar went for it 30 kilometers out, only to be reeled back in and beaten in a two-up sprint by Vingegaard. "I really believed that I was going to die three months ago," Vingegaard said after that stage. "I would never have believed that it would be possible for me to get this far."
At that moment, Vingegaard's ascension felt probable. The race was shifting toward terrain that has historically favored him, and the Dane's results were improving. Pogačar's one-minute advantage was marginal considering the eight he'd lost on the two stages where Vingegaard has cracked him in previous Tours. The rider racing his way into shape seemed to be fresher than his opponent, who was trying for a Giro-Tour double that hasn't been accomplished in 26 years.
While Pogačar's show of force on Stages 14 and 15 inspired awestruck superlatives from close observers and reestablished him as the clear favorite, Vingegaard hasn't given up the fight. If most riders saw the yellow jersey break a decades-old climbing record, like Pogačar did on Stage 14, they would start racing for second place, or at least wait until the leader showed some weakness. Instead, Vingegaard and his team redoubled their efforts and went directly after Pogačar the very next day. Pogačar knows what's in store for him this coming weekend, but that doesn't mean it can't work. It might be the only option remaining.
To appreciate how well Vingegaard is riding despite losing two stages in a row, consider the rest of the peloton. Only one rider is within 10:54 of the pair—Remco Evenepoel, who has accepted his fate—and only two opposing team leaders are within 15 minutes. Barring a crash or COVID case, that gap will surely increase. After Romain Bardet and Kévin Vauquelin opened the Tour with wins, Pogačar and Vingegaard have gobbled up every other hilly stage. They've created a field of bystanders.
Pogačar is the natural frontrunner, the guy who goofs around for TV cameras on the bike minutes before his life is changed by a thunderous Vingegaard attack. "I don’t know what I fear most from the last week," Pogačar said during Monday's rest day. "I don’t think I fear anything." Vingegaard's posture of grim determination is more suited to the chase. But what's special about their rivalry is how they elevate each other; favorite and underdog are unfit for the competition at hand. Both of them are so strong that they obviate tactics. Pogačar is still the favorite to ascend the top step of the podium in Nice. Until he does, Vingegaard will keep testing him.
