Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
Israel: This week certainly made it clear that the playoff committee is mostly operating off of vibes instead of any concrete, verifiable assessment of who the best teams are. But it doesn’t really matter that much, because no one can tell you which of these teams are actually good anyway. As soon as you think you have a handle on the landscape, a ranked team will just go and do something stupid like almost blowing it against Iowa or actually blowing it against Wake Forest. Why should anyone be expected to go off anything other than vibes?
At least we're past people crying about coaches, which was reaching a level of melodrama exhausting enough to drive even God's strongest soldiers insane. You can't point to a single coach who's been fired this season and say the decision was unreasonable, or out of nowhere. Since that’s the case, then all we’re really talking about is decorum. The respectability of letting a coach finish out the year with dignity. Well, let me be the one to tell you that respectability is overrated. When you’re in an arms race, you don’t have time for niceties—especially at this point in the season. Everyone should be feeling like they’re coaching or playing for their lives right now, much less their jobs. It’s the home stretch, baby!
Ray: The fun stuff now is trying to figure out who finishes 12th, which is to say the outworlder (official name: G5) school that will be invited to this tournament but none of the ones after this because the SEC and Big Ten will eventually want that last spot for themselves too. True, it would only mean a first-round loss at Georgia, but it matters to the loser just to be there, if only for the cheesy meshback ball cap that says, “I Was A 23-Point Underdog And Didn’t Cover.” Thus, your biggest games this week will be South Florida at Navy (noon on ESPN2), North Texas at Alabama Birmingham (2 p.m. on ESPN+), Appalachian State at James Madison (3:30 p.m. on ESPN+), and Florida Atlantic at Tulane (4 p.m. on ESPN+). I mean, you could grumble up a storm about Ohio State being a king-hell bore every week and you’d be right, but the only thing about college football that isn’t a total piefight every week is the top of the food chain, where the big dogs eat first, and then eat the smaller dogs for dessert.
And now, onto the games.
Clemson at Louisville – Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Virginia at Duke – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
The committee has no respect for the ACC, as shown by the conference's lack of representation in the first predicted playoff bracket, and it took less than a week for that pessimism to prove justified as both of the ACC’s top playoff prospects, Louisville and Virginia, went down in typically stupid ways. If there’s a silver lining, I guess it’s for Miami, which suddenly ekes closer to a spot in the conference championship game. It's imperative for both Louisville and Virginia to win this weekend and keep the Canes from jumping over them. I think by now we know enough about both teams and their opponents to be prepared for either team to make a donkey’s ass out of themselves. We’re in the thick of it, and all these mediocre teams are eating each other. Lucky for them, the committee will be forced to choose one of them. Unlucky for them, it will only be one. – Israel
Minnesota at Oregon – Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET on FOX
The Ducks barely escaped Iowa in lousy (read: normal Iowa City) weather but now return home to Eugene, where the locals are enjoying an unusually dry and clement late fall. This would be much more fun if it poured rain all day, because nobody in the stands will notice between being used to it and being absolutely boardfaced by four, but Oregon is a long shot to get into the top four so the game itself can only go badly for them unless they win by 70. In other words, they need a more substantial verdict against a very ordinary Gophers team, and since it will challenge East Coasters who need to get to bed early so they can sleep in on Saturday, it better be hella substantial. – Ray
Notre Dame at Pitt – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Notre Dame started the season 0-2, making some people think the unthinkable—a tournament without the Irish, and no treacly December features about their magical clergyman. Then they won their next seven by an average of 26 points and are starting to lurk near the upper half of the bracket, but even at 10 they’d still likely get Ole Miss and Photobombin’ Lane Kiffin in what would almost certainly be a dandy matchup, if only so you can say the words “Trinidad Chambliss" repeatedly. Pitt probably doesn’t factor here, in part because coach Pat Narduzzi gave us this quote: “Absolutely not. It is not an ACC game … I’d gladly get beat 103 or 110 to 10 … They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that.” We’ll take Pitt plus the 93, in case you’re asking. – Ray
South Florida at Navy – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Despite their record, Navy is not quite on the same tier as the best teams in their own conference. North Texas blasted them just as badly as Notre Dame did. It is of utmost importance that USF rebound against Navy, as they now have an opportunity after Memphis blew it last weekend in such disappointing fashion. There is little doubt that Alex Golesh will be in a bigger job next year—he’s already shown enough for that—but he still has a chance to really put this South Florida team in the spotlight if they can make the playoff. Memphis can still win the American, which will hinder the Bulls' chances, but before we cross that bridge, this team needs to get back on track with a win at Navy. – Israel
Arkansas at LSU – Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network
This game sucks on its face, but it’ll be worth it just to revel for four hours in the whineathon that follows the news report that Brian Kelly has put blood on the moon and sued for all $53 million he is owed, and not in quarters, and he is willing to sue the school and regents IN A LOUISIANA COURT to get it. Kelly is a monumental PITA, but a contract is a contract, and anything that weakens the football program and makes it the governor’s fault is aces over queens with us. – Ray
Bethune-Cookman at Jackson State – Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET
I know that halftime 'bout to go crazy. These are two of the best teams in the SWAC East facing off, with JSU dominating much of their competition. Running backs Ahmad Miller and Donerio Davenport have been dominant for the Tigers. This will probably be the Tigers' last tough matchup before the SWAC championship, most likely against Prairie View or a rematch with Grambling, so it’s one to watch out for if you can find a stream. That, and of course the marching band competition, which will be even tougher. – Israel
Tennessee Tech at Kentucky – Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET on SECN+ (whatever that is)
I’m just saying, only one of these teams is undefeated. – Israel
Iowa at USC – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network
The Trojans have an all-in game with Oregon next week, and Iowa can leaden even the hardiest eyelids, but only a fool would overlook this one for the next one. Of course, Lincoln Riley could do just that, but USC's two losses were to ranked teams on the road and this one is in the pastoral squalor of the Coliseum. Caveat: If you watched Oregon at Iowa last weekend, you can skip this because of the surgeon general’s warning about too much Kirk Ferentz in too short a time. – Ray
Oklahoma at Alabama – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
I am so frustrated by this Alabama team. They are so obviously flawed but they keep winning in a sport where every team is so obviously flawed in their own unique way. I imagine this will be a revenge game for Bama after the Sooners completely owned them last year. I would not say that Brent Venables is coaching for his job, but he’s also not not doing that. John Mateer’s arm is starting to look better post-injury, and if they have a chance it will be with a kitchen-sink type of game. This is more or less the last opportunity any team has at getting Bama this year, save for some Iron Bowl chicanery. Oklahoma might as well take the best shot it can muster. – Israel
North Carolina at Wake Forest – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on The CW
Bill Belichick and North Carolina have won two games in a row, which means they are probably feeling themselves right now. Especially Big-Brain Bill, grumbling through the locker room with a little more pep in his step. But they face stiffer competition this weekend (for them, at least) with a surging Wake Forest that upset Virginia last Saturday. Plus, with Brian Daboll fired, you just know Belichick is sniffing at the Giants job like a dog that thinks it’s time for its walk every time you stand up. Go put that hurting on Wake Forest, Bill. I’m sure that will convince everyone you should be in charge of another young quarterback’s professional career. – Israel
Delaware at Sam Houston – Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Sam Houston finally got off the schneid last Saturday by beating Oregon State at Corvallis for its first win, despite falling behind 17-0 at half, finishing with only eight first downs and being out-gained 474-157, thanks to a second-half kickoff return, a pick-six and two missed Beaver field goals. Not sure what your plans are, but a team that weirdly resourceful deserves at least a minute or two of viewer respect. Plus, you could make an entire day of ESPN+ games if you want, and have at least three of them mean something. This of course is not the one, but how much Arch Manning must you endure? – Ray
Texas at Georgia – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
This much more, as it turns out. The Longhorns seem to be rounding into the form their fans think they deserve, but Georgia straightens out attitudes as well as any team in America, save Indiana and A&M. This is going to be a revelation for the loser, probably Texas, but if it’s Georgia, only the gods know how insane the committee room will be. Well, Notre Dame does, because if they beat Pitt they’ll probably make another significant and only partially explicable leap in the rankings. After all, they have Father Pete, who apparently is the most powerful clergyman on earth given that Pope Leo The Sumpin’ Sumpinth is wasting his powers on the White Sox. – Ray
It would be so Georgia for Georgia to blow this game. I can already see it in vivid 4K Criterion-ready definition. – Israel
TCU at BYU – Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
BYU blew their undefeated streak just as I had finally learned about it, to Texas Tech, and now a second Texas program comes to give them another run for their money. It would be very disappointing for the Cougs to drop two in a row after starting the season so strong, but TCU won’t be a fun hang after an already deflating dismantlement the weekend before. Protestants vs. Mormons: who will outlast who? Which team will God show favor toward? Will the rapture happen mid-game to purify our souls for whatever this matchup might have delivered? All will be revealed on Saturday night. – Israel
Boise State at San Diego State – Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN
Like Navy, both Boise State and SDSU seem to be a step below the better teams in their own conference. But at least in the case of San Diego State, they win decisively when they go up against the teams on their level and below. This might account for why a majority of gambling money is riding on them, despite Boise State being overwhelmingly predicted to win. SDSU has a defensive stud in Owen Chambliss, but their quarterback is a major concern compared to Maddux Madsen on the other side. Regardless of the final score, I expect this to be a fun one going into the late night hour. – Israel
UMass at Ohio – Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+
The Minutemen are the last winless FBS team, having eked out a nail-biting 45-3 loss at home to 2-7 Northern Illinois. Ohio, meanwhile, leads the MAC. Why would you watch? It’s on a Tuesday. What else do you have to do, and if you say, “Time with the family,” we’ll know you’re a liar because your family would rather you watch the game than bother them on a school night. – Ray
At this point, we’re watching this to see if history will be made. You don’t want to tell your kids you missed out on such a moment. – Israel
The Offbrand Games Of The Week
No, not Oberlin, even though it lost its closest game of the year (42-13) to Wabash. We guide you instead to Merchant Marine at Coast Guard, a showdown being played at noon at Fenway Park and aired inexplicably on ESPN+. The game is good enough, Division III being what it is, but why Fenway when the open sea is so close and so much more apropos? You make this an actual naval battle, and that baby goes on the big network, for sure. Also, Wisconsin-River Falls and its 598-yards-per-game offense plays at Wisconsin-Stout in the Wisconsin Hyphenate Conference (1 p.m., somewhere) if you like that sort of thing. The other big one is that Mid-Atlantic classic, Alvernia at FDU-Florham, and only because both teams are 0-9 and someone’s going home happy whether they like it or not, damn it. – Ray
