Without Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing would be last in the 2025 Constructors' Championship. Assume that whoever takes Verstappen's seat would perform on par with Red Bull's second drivers so far, and Red Bull can upgrade that to a tidy second-to-last place. So long as the car is not a rocket and the team no longer has Adrian Newey, Red Bull needs Max Verstappen; unfortunately for Red Bull, it also becomes harder and harder for them to keep Max Verstappen.
The prospect of Verstappen, currently third in the Drivers' Championship behind the two McLarens, leaving Red Bull was inconceivable even last year, during the height of Christian Horner's misconduct allegations. Though there's no such thing as loyalty in Formula 1, the idea is as aesthetically unimaginable as, say, Lewis Hamilton in a Ferrari. But at some point the noise becomes too much to deny. Two months ago, George Russell, who does not have a contract extension for next year, stated that it would be "totally understandable" for Mercedes to pursue Verstappen; just prior to the weekend's Austrian Grand Prix, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff confirmed that he was having conversations with Verstappen behind closed doors; and on Saturday, Verstappen's was out-qualified by Liam Lawson in a VCARB, Red Bull's sister team.
At least Verstappen's weekend horrors didn't last very long. Starting P7 placed him in the midfield muck during the opening lap, where accidents are bound to happen. In the opening corners, Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli took a move that could generously be described as optimistic: He broke very late down the inside of the field, and pinballed both himself and Verstappen out of the race. The move landed Antonelli with a three-place grid penalty for next race, but his immediate contrition—and, perhaps, his babyish mien—spared him from Verstappen's rage. "I think every driver has made a mistake like that. No one does that on purpose as well, so for me, that’s not a big deal," Verstappen said after the race.
In other words, unlucky. Also unlucky: There was no Ferrari disaster this time to distract from Red Bull's weekend horrors. The Ferrari upgrade package made them the clear second-best team behind McLaren, who were in-fighting in the opening laps of the race and still pulled a clear gap to the cars behind. In a race as droll as this one, the speed at which backmarkers could respect blue flags became the primary source of tension in the closing laps. Unfortunately for Red Bull, Yuki Tsunoda was most notable for teaming up with the Franco Colapinto's Alpine to create a blue flag incident with Oscar Piastri's McLaren. (A radio gem from Piastri, after Colapinto forced him onto the grass: "Alpine still manages to find a way to fuck me over all these years later." It is worth noting that while the backmarkers slowed Piastri, they also slowed Norris, who still went on to comfortably win the race.)
At the time of the incident, Tsunoda and Colapinto were fighting over second-to-last place on track. Lawson, after swapping seats with Tsunoda, has now passed him on points in the season; in Tsunoda's defense, he's had to drive the Red Bull for seven more races. That about sums up Red Bull's season without Verstappen to cover up the car's evident flaws.
Somewhere in the world, VCARB's Isack Hadjar is praying to all that is good that Red Bull does not reward his impressive rookie performances with a promotion. Somewhere in the world, Wolff is licking his lips and calculating driver lineups. Should he make the straightforward one-for-one swap of Russell with Verstappen—a possibility Antonelli, with his immediate apology after taking out Verstappen this weekend, made a little easier? Or should he sacrifice Antonelli, the theoretical future of Mercedes, in favor of a 1-2 pairing of Verstappen and Russell, who do not get along, in an attempt to run back the Hamilton–Rosberg years?
Wolff may not be the biggest winner of the weekend. Somewhere in the world, Sergio Pérez is cackling and saying, Well, well, well, not so easy to find a second driver that doesn't suck shit, huh?
