Here’s The 2026 World Cup Draw

On Friday, after an interminable procession of songs, skits, interviews, and speeches, including Donald Trump accepting a knock-off Peace Prize, FIFA's 2026 World Cup draw ceremony finally did the only thing anyone actually cared about. (If that sentence sounds somewhat familiar, there's a reason, and it's that FIFA has unfortunately settled on a bloated format for the draw, made only more bloated by the sheer Americanness of this edition.) With just over six months until the start of the tournament, and with six spots still left to be decided by various playoffs in March, the general skeleton of the first 48-team World Cup has been sorted out. Here it is:

Thanks to the 48-team format, there are lots of weaker sides in the tournament, lowering the chances of a true Group of Death. However, thanks to Norway's inclusion in Pot 3, Group I looks the closest. France is a tournament favorite, Senegal qualified from Group B in African qualifying without a loss, and Norway has the right make-up to play spoiler. (Spare a thought for one of Bolivia, Suriname, or Iraq, who will be the fourth member of that group.) Of the hosts, Mexico got the most manageable draw, but Canada will have a tough group with Switzerland and possibly Italy, if the Italians can get their heads out of their asses, and the United States should be favored to survive Group D, but the draw of Paraguay-Australia-Possibly Turkiye could pose problems if the Americans aren't fully locked in from game one (against Paraguay on June 12).

Really, though, the expanded format makes it hard for the teams in Pots 1 and 2 to mess up too badly. There are just too many weak teams in the tournament, and while that is exciting for those teams, no one wants to watch Curaçao get obliterated by Germany, the Ivory Coast, and Ecuador. (At least it was funny to hear Wayne Gretzky pronounce it "Curako" during the draw.)

If the pomp, circumstance, and propaganda of the World Cup draw left you with a bad feeling, that's almost by design. FIFA loves to sniff its own farts and to bank on the World Cup's stature to mask its corruption and its skilled kneeling to autocrats. Mostly, that works; despite the human rights abuses ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the lasting image from that tournament was of Lionel Messi and Argentina lifting the trophy in one of the best soccer matches of all time.

Thanks to the Trump administration's many, many horrible deeds, the 2026 World Cup will likely be marred by off-the-field issues and the clear and present danger that ICE and the United States' immigration policies pose to both those who live here and those who are just visiting. With only 188 days until Mexico and South Africa kick the tournament off at the Estadio Azteca, FIFA is betting bigger than it ever has before that the World Cup can thrive, even under those conditions.