It started as it would end, with Freddie Freeman, and then it just kept happening: Dodger after Dodger in extra innings would smoke a potential walk-off home run off of Toronto Blue Jays near-hero Eric Lauer, almost directly to center field, the stadium would roar, and then the ball would die just at the warning track, snagged, inevitably, by Daulton Varsho. It was funny, and then it was funny, and then it was ... funny? And then it was the bottom of the 18th inning.
Because of how long the game ran, it was chillier and perhaps windier than you usually get at Dodger Stadium, which—for reasons that are somewhat inscrutable but can be attributed to short fences, a short center field, perhaps (or perhaps not) balmy Los Angeles weather—has recently been the best home run park in baseball. That was the real killer. It wasn't just the home crowd psyching out everyone else; the batters themselves were at least partially convinced that the ball, off their bat, would be a home run. Perhaps it was wishful thinking.
Here is every Dodgers almost-homer in extra innings, ranked by how close they came, emotionally and physically, to freeing spectators from this mortal coil.
Honorary Mention: Freddie Freeman, bot. 15th; 104.4 mph EV, 20° LA, 357 ft., .570 xBA
Here is a cheesy one that almost counts on the basis of theoretical possibility. Of the many balls hit in this slice of exit velocity and launch angle, only two became home runs, and both were pulled at a quite extreme angle. However, even though the catch was two strides from the warning track, no one was expecting a home run as soon as the camera cut to Varsho's route—the primary hope was, with Shohei Ohtani intentionally walked on base, that Freeman might at least knock him in with a double off of Lauer's middle-down, 92-mph four-seamer. And indeed Statcast tells us that this would've been a hit roughly 57 percent of the time.
Did you know that Daulton Varsho, despite having fewer attempts to work with than most of his counterparts, has been the 12th best outfielder by Outs Above Average in MLB this year?
4. Max Muncy, bot. 14th; 106.4 mph EV, 40° LA, 379 ft., ?? xBA
This was a smoked foul ball off of a curveball that hung up and in. As it was not fair, it does not carry an xBA, though of the 11 balls hit at that very narrow slice of speed and launch angle (that come up in Statcast search, at least), seven of them were home runs, while the remainders were fly outs. One of those home runs was hit by Max Muncy—but the Max Muncy that's on the West Sacramento A's.
Muncy's almost-homer is down near the bottom of this list because at no point did anyone really think the ball might remain fair, but it deserves a mention anyway because it was absolutely smoked. 106.4 mph is the highest exit velocity of all the Dodgers' almost-homers. Also, this at-bat came directly after two consecutive at bats with warning-track fly-outs. Muncy, failing to walk it off, would engage in some vintage Muncy behaviors and extend the inning by walking. The Dodgers and Jays would continue to play for four more innings.
3. Teoscar Hernández, bot. 16th; 101.4 mph EV, 28° LA, 381 ft., .630 xBA
Hernández did a fabulous half-celebration here, fitting for a half-moment. No bat flip or bat toss, but he kept his bat up long enough after the swing for it to still look cool and intentional should it have been a homer. Unfortunately it was not, because Daulton Varsho was out there on the warning track. The Dodgers and Jays would continue to play for two more innings.
It's worth noting here that the xBA of almost-homers (which do not count outfielder placement or pull angle) tend to be feast or famine—either the ball is a home run, or it is an easier fly out, with a narrow slice for variety within. Of the 62 pitches hit at that exit velocity and launch angle this year, exactly half became home runs. Why shouldn't Hernández's ball be one of the unlucky few to fail to become a hit? At this point, hope of a reasonable bedtime was already dead. It was kind of hilarious, if you think about it.
2. Will Smith, bot. 14th; 101.5 mph, 32° LA, 383 ft., .510 xBA
Will Smith was not as lucky as Teoscar Hernández. Absent the teaching experience of, well, his own plate appearance, he gave a nonchalant bat flip to a ball that died a mere foot or two from being a home run. Instead it was caught by Varsho. Nobody is allowed to point and laugh; you would've done the same.
In the at-bat immediately following this, Muncy would smoke his foul almost-homer. As for the last Dodgers at bat:
1. Freddie Freeman, bot. 13th; 103.9 mph, 35° LA, 378 ft., .600 xBA
With two outs in the bottom of the 13th, the Blue Jays walked Shohei Ohtani, then walked Mookie Betts to load the bases, and their reward was having to face Freddie Freeman, who had, just last year, hit the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history. This was still Eric Lauer's first inning of work, and his second pitch of the at bat was a 93-mph four-seamer to the middle of the plate, and Freeman absolutely smoked the pitch. Only, he hit it to virtually dead center field, where—you guessed it—Daulton Varsho was lying in wait.
In retrospect, this was when we should have known. Everything, including park characteristics, was conspiring to make this game last as long as humanly possible. You told me that Dodger Stadium is the most homer-happy stadium in baseball! What happened? You promised me that both bullpens were ass! Why is everyone suddenly incapable of smacking the ball anywhere but center field? Why do I keep seeing Daulton Varsho? I suppose we'll all die watching this game. At least we'll die together.
0. Freddie Freeman, bot. 18th; an actual home run
Go to bed!
