DALLAS — I’m a punk who’s been in many mosh pits in my lifetime. Never have I experienced a media scrum that felt more like a mosh pit than the one surrounding Roki Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe at MLB’s Winter Meetings. The presser moved quickly, not just in terms of the brisk cadence of questions and answers but physically moved—from a corner in the Hilton Anatole’s Grand Ballroom, which acted as the media workroom, onto the stage with the podium and the MLB logo backdrop. Journalists followed Wolfe until they were crowding around the stage like they were at a basement show.
Wolfe addressed the scrum with a microphone that didn’t always work—adding to the DIY show feel, come to think of it—while fielding but not quite answering questions about where the most interesting international free agent in years would be likely to sign. That, honestly, is where the comparison to a punk show ends. Everything else is pure transactional offseason baseball, with a generous side order of rules—all of it just about the least punk thing imaginable.
Roki Sasaki, who just turned 23 in November, is already a star pitcher with the Chiba Lotte Marines; at his request, the team posted him on Dec. 10. Here come the rules: If you’re a player who doesn’t have the nine years of experience needed to be considered an international free agent, your club can “post” you as a free agent for MLB teams. Doing so begins a 45-day window during which players and teams can negotiate—for Sasaki, that negotiating window opens on Jan. 15 and ends eight days later.
It’s an inherently flawed system, as Daniel R. Epstein has pointed out at Baseball Prospectus, and the loopholes and contradictions that define it highlight some long standing institutional failures within MLB, which is failing international players in a number of ways. The three main problems that Epstein identifies in MLB’s international system are that bonus limits are artificial and predatory, that MLB already has a rule against it which it should enforce but currently does not, and that Sasaki, who made his first NPB start back in 2021, is not a true amateur. All of these things can be true—all of these things are true—without making much of a difference. As a result, Sasaki is a very unusual sort of free agent: much closer to big-league ready than the teenagers typical of the international free agent class, but subject to restrictive bonus in a way that last year’s blue-chip NPB posting, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, was not. Yamamoto got $325 million over 12 years from the Dodgers; Sasaki’s maximum contract will be in the neighborhood of $10-12 million.
Wolfe stated in his presser that Sasaki is open to signing anywhere, even potentially preferring small- to mid-market teams given his wish for less intense media coverage after his negative experience in NPB. The agent noted that part of his client’s rough ride in the Japanese press owed to Sasaki’s openness about wanting to ultimately play in MLB, which was considered disrespectful. Wolfe was quick to point out that this was an issue with Japanese media, not Japanese-American media; both contingents were unsurprisingly well-represented in the pit.
In an attempt to convince Sasaki that they could provide both a good and a sane big-league home, teams have been sending videos, PowerPoints, and fact sheets to his representation. Even the Chicago White Sox, a team that does not have a very plausible path to .500 in 2025, lobbed a PowerPoint Wolfe’s way. As well they might: Sasaki is a free agent that every MLB team can afford, and that every MLB team wants. Every team in the sport has become a “come to Brazil” reply guy, except with PDFs. Cincinnati may have just sent an ad for Skyline Chili. Again, it's worth a shot.
Sasaki’s plan, according to Wolfe, included returning to Japan for Christmas before coming back to the States, visiting some of these MLB cities and tasting their regional chilis as desired, and considering what the PowerPoint makers have to offer. Wolfe said about half the league has scouted Sasaki, which is unsurprising considering his performances in the World Baseball Classic, where Japan won the gold medal.
There is rampant speculation about where Sasaki will sign, naturally. There’s not much else to talk about at the moment, and given that he could become the ace of a staff sooner than later it beats guessing where the Diamondbacks might send Jordan Montgomery. Could those PowerPoint presentations and the PDFs actually play a role in steering him away from the presumed favorites, the Dodgers or possibly the Padres? Maybe!
The resulting spectacle, with very little to actually talk about, is goofy, strange, and heated in roughly equal measure. In Dallas, I hung at the back of the scrum, observing my fellow reporters trying to get their questions in. The energy was high; adrenaline rushed and everyone squished together. If Wolfe had wanted to crowd-surf, he could have. Everyone in that scrum wanted to know where Roki Sasaki is going. Every baseball fan wants to see him pitch for their team. If it was all a bit much, it’s hard to say it doesn't warrant it.
