I love when a team has distinct flaws but isn't irredeemable. It's one of my favorite things in sports, actually—that extended fight to minimize weaknesses and maximize strengths in a journey from "slightly below average" to "slightly above average." I don't want a perfect protagonist. The work that goes into moderate improvement is what satisfies me. For that reason, we turn our attention to the Emma Woodhouses of the NHL.
After the extended 4 Nations break, it's a bit of a jolt to realize that so many teams are suddenly back to high-stakes action on a schedule that feels pretty scrunched. Out in the West, six playoff spots read as extremely secure, while the remaining two look like a battle among Colorado, Calgary, and Vancouver, with perhaps Utah as a dark horse. I want to focus on the East, however, because that's where the drama already has me biting my nails. Six teams are reasonably comfortable, but below them, we've got five squads auditioning for the two wild card roles. Three of these teams would see a playoff berth as a relieving breakthrough after a long struggle; the other two would be severely disappointed in themselves if they let this year go to waste. Here is a quick guide to them all, starting with seventh place and working our way down.
Detroit Red Wings
I'm trying to wrap my head around how this happened. The Red Wings entered the season with their fans itching to make the playoffs after they'd just missed out on breaking the drought last year. Their roster, however, looked more feeble than the one that had finished ninth last spring, as big new contracts for young cornerstones Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond—along with the lingering effects of some inefficient veteran deals—prevented them from bulking up. As a result, the Wings sputtered to an ugly start that made boos a common sound on their own home ice.
Head coach Derek Lalonde got the pink slip in late December, replaced by a shrug-your-shoulders hire in Todd McLellan. I went to his very first game behind the bench, and it was a miserable loss to the Maple Leafs that had me seething. Then, somehow, everything changed. Without having to make any significant acquisitions, the Wings became the hottest team in hockey, tightening up defensively while playing with rejuvenated energy. The fans took them back like an apologetic ex.
Nothing about the Wings scans as spectacular—though captain and 1C Dylan Larkin is a beloved leader and hometown boy—but they keep finding ways to win. Over the past eight games, they've managed shootout victories over Edmonton and Seattle, OT wins against Vancouver and Anaheim, and on Tuesday, a 3-2 comeback in Minnesota fueled by a pair of goals from 22-year-old defenseman Simon Edvinsson. Call it luck, or call it the power of belief, but as sudden as it seems, the Red Wings are now a team that feels comfortable under pressure.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets making their first playoffs since 2020 would be a bittersweet success. They'd be a young group of guys experiencing a long-awaited taste of every hockey player's dream, but they'd be doing it without their crown jewel, Johnny Gaudreau, who was killed by a driver while biking with his brother in August.
In four years of NHL irrelevancy, the Blue Jackets made good use of their draft picks and are enjoying the benefits of several talented choices developing ahead of schedule. If you subscribe to the idea of "underrated players," then Kirill Marchenko would be at the top of the list, scoring 23 goals with 36 assists so far this season while rarely being on the ice for a tally against. Dmitri Voronkov has been cold of late but already topped his rookie campaign with 19 goals and 39 points. And the hype has proven accurate so far for Columbus's two most crucial pieces: Kent Johnson, fifth overall in 2021, and Adam Fantilli, third overall in 2023.
This is still a team lacking defensive depth, a goalie, a star, and consistency. But they've earned their place in the mix, and the next two games are as intriguing as it gets. CBJ plays the Red Wings in Detroit on Thursday night, then again outdoors at the big stadium in central Ohio on Saturday. Win those, and everyone will take notice.
New York Rangers
These guys had the best record in the league last year! They made the conference finals! What are they doing all the way down here? Well, for starters, everyone kind of knew that Presidents' Trophy was a little flukey, coming as it did with only the seventh-best goal differential in the NHL. But regardless, it's been a humbling season for Manhattan's hockey team. All their stars have weathered a dip in production, and the play has been dire enough that it's catalyzed a few major changes in personnel. Team captain Jacob Trouba, he of the controversial bone-crushing hits, got exiled to Anaheim. Kaapo Kakko, the underwhelming No. 2 overall pick in 2019, is now Kaapo Kraken. Amid the shuffling, however, they swung a deal that reintroduced them to the allegedly disgruntled Canucks standout J.T. Miller. Back in the place where he started his NHL career, Miller's taken the reins with five goals in eight showings.
The Rangers forgot to show up for their first game after the international break, going down 5-0 to the Sabres in the first period. (Kind of hilarious). But they rebounded by beating Pittsburgh the next day and then the Islanders 5-1 on Tuesday night. At the very least, thanks to the makeover and the cushion provided by all their talent, the mood is a lot lighter then it was around New Year's. Swap the result of one measly game, and they'd have the eight seed over Columbus right now. Anything can happen.
Fact: The Rangers are 2-0-0 when the gigantic, graceless, 22-year-old brawler Matt Rempe scores a goal. Sounds like they should put him on the first line.
Ottawa Senators
Finally! The Senators are almost good! Also: They've lost five in a row. Oops.
Since they gave up making the playoffs in 2017-18, the Sens have been on a long road to amassing young talent that would ideally give them fruitful returns. At times, they've looked dangerous, but it's been a struggle to keep all their kids healthy and productive. Judging purely by potential, the pieces alone are exciting ones: superstar-in-the-making Brady Tkachuk; defensive rock Thomas Chabot; 2023 All-Rookie honoree Jake Sanderson; Tim Stützle, who scored 39 goals at 21 years of age two seasons ago; Josh Norris, who scored 35 at age 22 three years ago. But every years these guys get ... well, a year older. And still, there's been no meaningful hockey in Ottawa.
The Senators this year have enjoyed improved goaltending (though nothing like Linus Ullmark's peak in Boston) and, like the Red Wings, are pulling out a lot of one-goal wins. But the losing streak, which actually followed a five-game winning stretch, nevertheless points to a core instability that has yet to be solved by their latest coach, Travis Green. Maybe some day it'll all pay off.
Boston Bruins
OK, sorry. I'll be nice now. Since they last missed the playoffs in 2016, the Bruins have been the best franchise in the league not to win a Stanley Cup. The 2022-23 edition was the very best team ever not to end the year as champions (or make it past the first round). But after enjoying an open window for a very long time, a windy spell is finally trying to slam it shut. The Bruins are suffering through a huge drop in quality from goaltender Jeremy Swayman, the lingering impact of the Patrice Bergeron retirement, and middling play from skaters who just cannot hit that absurd ceiling they set for themselves in the regular season two years ago. They've already done the coaching change thing, but it hasn't produced the same spark that it did for the Wings. In fact, they're on a losing streak of four straight one-goal games, including OT winners for Leo Carlsson and Mitch Marner on Saturday and Tuesday. Injuries to their two top defensemen, Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm, only make the outlook more bleak.
But despite their 11th-place spot, the Bruins still grab my attention in the standings, because a squad fronted by David Pastrňák and Brad Marchand has earned a certain benefit of the doubt. They're a team that's won an enviable number of games together, especially in the regular season, and they can own a measure of confidence that their history gives them an edge on Ottawa, Detroit, or Columbus. The only problem is, all those teams' points to date this year give them their own edge, so the Bruins have to act fast.
The Islanders, Flyers, and Canadiens can all entertain hopes of muscling in on this picture with a string of victories. Unfortunately for them, this blog is over.
