Here we are again. For most of Erik ten Hag's tenure at Manchester United, England's most storied club has been reeling. Though his first season, the 2022-23 edition, was a moderate success—third place in the Premier League and a League Cup trophy, after a 2021-22 season in which the club finished sixth with no trophies—it's been downhill since. Instead of building on that return to decency, last season United finished eighth in the league and last in its Champions League group, looking dire for most of the campaign.
The Dutch manager was almost immediately on the hot seat last season, losing four out of seven matches in the first six weeks, and it didn't get much better as the season went on. A 4-0 loss to Crystal Palace in early May seemed to signal the end of his time at Old Trafford, but a shock FA Cup final victory over Manchester City bought him enough of a reprieve to try again this season. A spendy summer followed that victory, and if not a return to title contention, the United faithful and brass probably expected a solid push for the top four. If the first six weeks of this season are to be believed, however, they're in for more of the same, which has to have put Ten Hag on the brink of the unemployment line.
At the time of writing, United sits mired in 13th place in the Premier League table, and even that undersells how poor the side has been. While it did pick up a 1-0 victory of Fulham on opening day, and a 3-0 stomp of relegation fodder Southampton, the rest of the domestic campaign has been embarrassing. A 2-1 loss to Brighton away might have been acceptable, but losing 3-0 at home to its most hated rivals of Liverpool had to hurt.
A listless 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace was disappointing as well, but perhaps the nadir of Ten Hag's entire term came this past Sunday. With the pressure building to unbearable levels, United laid a hell of a stinker at Old Trafford, losing 3-0 to a visiting Tottenham side that hasn't been all that convincing to start the campaign. While United might have felt hard done by due to a dubious red card to Bruno Fernandes in the 42nd minute (so dubious that the FA on Tuesday admitted the call was wrong and rescinded the concomitant three-game suspension), it's not like the card disrupted an otherwise sterling performance. From the first whistle, Spurs were all over United, scoring early (Brennan Johnson in the third minute) and then often after the red (Dejan Kulusevski in the 47th, and new signing Dominic Solanke in the 77th). Spurs controlled the possession (63 percent) and dominated in chance creation and shot taking, winning the latter statistic 24 to 11.
If there is ever a match that screamed "fire the manager," it was that, but Ten Hag might have been granted a stay of execution thanks to the calendar. An international break is coming up after this weekend's matches, so it did not make too much sense for United to fire its manager before that. Better to let Ten Hag ride out this week as a lame duck, with an away match in the Europa League against Porto on Thursday and a tough trip to Aston Villa on Sunday, before making any decision.
For my money, no amount of good results from those two matches should save Ten Hag's job, but it's possible that United shakes off its first Europa League match—a 1-1 draw at home to FC Twente, no one's idea of a powerhouse—to beat Porto, and then flips the switch against Villa. There's a statistical argument to be made that United isn't quite as futile in attack as it has looked so far, which could bode well for a quick turnaround: for the season, United has scored five goals on 10.81 xG, an underperformance that could even out sooner than later. However, the defense has been almost as lucky as the attack has been unlucky, giving up eight goals on 13.1 xGA. The upshot is that no matter where you look to assess United's season, the answer is bad.
The failure is comprehensive. No one on the roster is playing well, save maybe for Diogo Dalot, who has merely been okay at left back. New attacking signing Joshua Zirkzee might have won the opener at Fulham, but he's been worse than mediocre in his five appearances since. Last year's revelation, Kobbie Mainoo, has been sluggish, partly due to the lack of a solid midfield partner—Casemiro is washed, and has been one of the worst players in the league this season—and partly, perhaps, due to a busy summer schedule at the Euros for England. Marcus Rashford seems over it, and has only one goal in six matches. It's bleak top to bottom, in other words, despite the millions and millions of dollars pumped into the squad since Ten Hag took over.
Though Ten Hag was quoted this week saying how much the team can succeed under his stewardship, and how he has no worries about his job security, replacing him is the easiest and perhaps most effective route toward a turn-around. Surely this collection of talent is better than it has shown this season. If it starts at the top with Ten Hag, then it presumably should end with him going out the door as well. A trophy bought him a few more months to turn things around, but there appears to be no fix for how uninspiring United are at the moment. Time should be up for Ten Hag, and now it's just a matter of waiting for United to make the change it perhaps should have made in the summer.
