If—if!—one wanted to identify a trend, one might point out the successive results in the Maple Leafs–Senators series. In Game 1 the Leafs dominated. Games 2 and 3 required overtime to settle, with Toronto winning both. Game 4 also went to prolongation, this time with Ottawa finally breaking through. Tuesday night's Game 5 was a mostly comfortable 4-0 Sens win. Using my elite pattern recognition, honed by millions of years of evolution, I could note that the Senators have played increasingly well in each game, and the Maple Leafs increasingly worse. Ottawa's scoring by game is a line trending only up, while Toronto's veers dirtward.
And if—if!!!—I chose to retreat to my mind palace to catalog and cite past events for the purposes of providing context for this series, I might reflect upon the fact that the Maple Leafs have a history of choking to death, especially in the first round, often against objectively less talented teams that nonetheless stop fearing them as the series moves along and the Leafs fail to clinch when the opportunity is available. Why, I might even observe that their core is 1-13 in series-clinching games, and 0-6 at home. I'm not saying any of this means the Leafs are gonna blow it again! I am not saying that. I'm just noticing things.
Let's take the temperature in Leafland.
"We're fine," winger Mitch Marner said.
"I think we’re fine," defenseman Chris Tanev said.
"Everybody's fine in here," center Auston Matthews said.
See? They're fine! Totally fine. Even though they got booed off home ice last night. Even though Anthony Stolarz is suddenly looking beatable in net, and Linus Ullmark isn't. And even though Brady Tkachuk issued a guarantee, after Game 4, that the series would return to Ottawa, and followed through by setting up and screening the first goal and facilitating a pair of empty-netters. They're fine.
Do you think the Leafs are stressing this, aware the franchise has a recent knack for blowing leads? Do you think the specter of being on the wrong end of a 3-0 comeback lurks in the back of their heads, knowing it's happened in the NHL four times before? Would they refuse to admit it to the media, because it's not something you're allowed to talk about, even though merely thinking about it might make it more likely to happen?
"I’m not feeling anything,” Craig Berube said.
If it were the case that the Leafs are headed for another historic collapse, surely, the Senators' newfound swagger wouldn't help things. Tkachuk, who waved bye-bye to Toronto fans after one of the empty-netters, was asked whether he thinks the Leafs, once up 3-0 and cruising, have had a "seed of doubt" planted in their minds. He answered in the affirmative.
Of course this is all just idle speculation. The Leafs could take care of business on Thursday. Hell, the whole point of building themselves that early cushion was so that they wouldn't face a true must-win game unless they lost Game 4, and Game 5, and Game 6. Well, they're two-thirds of the way to that precipice, but they're clearly not spooked by the possibility. We all know that if the Maple Leafs have one strength, it's a core group of stars with plenty of experience.
"We’ve been here before," Matthews said.
Oh no.
