What was Mike Vrabel possibly thinking?
It was the fourth quarter. There were 10 minutes left. The Titans trailed the Ravens, 17-13. Tennessee had a fourth-and-2 at the Baltimore 40. And they punted.
The punt went 25 yards. The Ravens were back to their own 38 just four plays later. They ended up kicking a field goal; the Titans got the ball back down a touchdown with just 4:19 left. Ryan Tannehill then threw an interception, and the game was basically over.
But back to that punt. The idea, presumably, was that the Titans defense would hold the Ravens and Tennessee would be able to drive for the game-winning score later. Right. Was that even likely? Obviously it didn’t happen, but the Titans had forced just two three-and-outs all game. But don't listen to me. Listen to these numbers nerds.
---> BAL (17) @ TEN (13) <---
— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) January 10, 2021
TEN has 4th & 2 at the BAL 40
Recommendation (VERY STRONG): 👉 Go for it (+7.9 WP)
Actual play: 🏈🦵 B.Kern punts 25 yards to BLT 15, Center-M.Overton, fair catch by D.Duvernay. pic.twitter.com/jOnBdWPgVp
TEN decided to punt to BAL from the BAL 40 on 4th & 2 with 10:06 remaining in the 4th while losing 13 to 17.
— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) January 10, 2021
With a Surrender Index of 138.87, this punt ranks at the 100th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 99.92nd percentile of all punts since 2009.
Pro Football Reference said it was the first time in its database (since 1994) that a team had punted down a score in this field position.
So what did we learn? Mike Vrabel is willing to cut off his own dick to win a Super Bowl, but he's not willing to go for it on fourth-and-2.
