Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
Ray: Some malignant and aggressively stupid sludgesmear with a lopsided head full of festering brain lesions—sorry, commenter—complained last week that we are too focused on coach firings. Well, you dismal meat puppet, we’re not nearly as focused on firings as the people getting fired or doing the firing are, as three more coaches got cranked this week: Penn State’s James Franklin, Alabama at Birmingham’s Trent Dilfer and Oregon State’s Trent Bray. That takes the total of in-season buyout checks to seven at the halfway point of the season, and there will be many more (hello again, Billy Napier). We are learning more and more that the people who shape the sport (and by sport, we mean business) are mostly in this to hand out pink slips and bootprints because the one thing that separates college football from all other sports is hire-to-fire jobs. And we include Kirby Smart and his $100 million buyout from Georgia. They’re all dead men walking, even the ones who think they have conquered death.
Israel: James Franklin got canned, and the only surprising thing about it is that it happened in season. There were many valid reasons to make that decision, but to do it now sends a message, which should have a lot of other coaches shaking in their boots. It's not just that Franklin doesn't win big games or that he seems kinda unlikable. It's also the fact that Curt Cignetti might have turned Indiana into a power. It's that Matt Rhule and Nebraska are headed in the right direction. It's that Michigan won a national championship two years ago. It's that Vanderbilt beat Alabama last year, Ole Miss is making progress, and the U is maybe back.
Some schools, like Penn State, will always see themselves as part of Mount Olympus, regardless of how long it's been since they last touched the summit. Other schools, like Duke, UCF, and Texas Tech, have started legitimizing themselves even though they have no business doing so. When that happens, the people in charge start asking themselves the same question: "Why not us?" And that's what triggers the avalanche of coach firings. If you're coaching at a program that feels like it could be as good as Georgia Tech, you should be sweating. If you're at a school that still feels like it should be a dominant program but is underachieving, you might want to update that résumé. Yeah, you too, Dabo. Yes, you, Sherrone Moore. Judging by Doug Gottlieb's radio show this week, he knows where the wind is blowing even in his sport. Even the schools that struggle in recruiting are suddenly finding ways to become competitive, which also means that the margins for coaches have gotten even tighter.
Now onto the games.
Louisville at Miami – Friday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
The weekend probably begins and ends right here, because Miami and Ohio State have pulled away from the beauty contest field while Louisville is stealthy good, starting with head coach Jeff Brohm. Louisville has a very good defense, but Miami’s is better. Coincidentally, Louisville’s offense is functional, but Miami’s is more functional. In other words, this one may make or break Louisville’s season, while Miami, playing for higher stakes, has only this game left before the schedule gets easier. The Canes have no reason to come out flat except smugness, and they haven’t really shown themselves to be particularly smug when it comes to game day. Carson Beck might want to run up some numbers, but by now he should have recognized that keeping Miami unbeaten is the only stat he needs. – Ray
North Carolina at Cal – Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Yeah, him again. The rockslide that never ends goes west, so that a whole new group of people can laugh at his circumstances and reaction therein. This could be an avoidable game if not for two things: Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and the fact that you can finish Louisville-Miami and not have to go looking for your remote. But let’s be clear here: You’re only watching to see Bill Belichick trying to swallow his own face. We know what you’re like, and we know what you like. – Ray
LSU at Vanderbilt – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
You only have to watch half of this game—when Vanderbilt has the ball. The poster children for the new world of college football can move the ball, and LSU is exceedingly good at not letting teams move the ball. The game becomes slightly more interesting but less visually alluring because it is in Nashville rather than Baton Rouge (everything looks weirder in Baton Rouge, and that includes everything in New Orleans). But game-wise, everything you need to see is Vandy with the ball and LSU trying to get it back. Now, we take no positions here, but you’re allowed to want Vandy to win because, well, it’s Vandy. The ‘Dores haven’t had successive winning seasons since the last two James Franklin years, and before that it was 1974-75. The history you want is Vanderbilt, but the history you get says LSU, and by a lot. – Ray
Georgia Tech at Duke – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
The ballad of Haynes King continues. A college football legend in the making. Barreling, barreling, barreling through the ACC. But our hero meets a formidable foe in the Blue Devil, tempting him in his football garden of Eden. "No! Don’t run through our defense to beat us! Think about your NFL draft stock, what if you get hurt?" What will our hero do? Will he succumb to the temptations of losing to another school that has no business being this good at football? We must depend on Haynes King, mountain man, to continue to lead his beloved Yellow Jackets to success. – Israel
Baylor at TCU – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
No matter what their records are, this game is always a barnburner—in the sense that they are literally going to burn down the barn. TCU has been pretty good, and Baylor has been surprisingly good. I would trust TCU’s defense more, but Baylor has found a way to stay in games and keep scoring even when things look dire. If this game does not get to 50 combined points, I will be extremely upset. – Israel
Ole Miss at Georgia – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Lane Kiffin is doing that thing where he tries to rile up the base with a little shit-talking. In another life, I might’ve been happy to catch Kiff’s set at the Laugh Factory. Neither Ole Miss nor Georgia inspired much confidence last week, which makes it tough for me to envision how this game goes. I do have more faith in Ole Miss’s offense than Georgia’s, but the problem is that Georgia is good at bending but rarely ever breaks (except for against Alabama). Although Ole Miss won this game last year, and I think they have a better team this year, I'm not sure the QB is better. I can’t call it, and when that’s the case, that usually means to stick with Georgia. – Israel
Michigan State at Indiana – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock
There is nothing more that needs to be said here except this: Indiana is a four-touchdown favorite. Four touchdowns. FOUR. TOUCHDOWNS. In the last two decades, Indiana has been favored by this much only twice in conference games: last year in the season finale against 1-11 Purdue, and in 2019 against 2-10 Rutgers. Indiana has middling talent by most people’s mathematical analyses, but they never lose, and Curt Cignetti is leaning into Bob Knight icon territory in the state. Do the right thing here—get your guy (the guy who books your bets in person, not those jackals at DraftSlugs) and drop a quid on the Hoosiers minus the 28, just to say you did it. – Ray
UNLV at Boise State – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1
I will be locked in on this game. All the betting money is on Boise State, I think primarily because of name recognition. These teams have very similar résumés and neither has lost in the Mountain West yet. The biggest ding on UNLV is that they’ve allowed so many points, even as they’ve scored way more of them. Boise State is not really a team you want to get into a shootout with, but a shootout is exactly what I am looking for here. At the very least I feel like UNLV will cover the spread, but they can certainly win outright. Don’t let me down, boys! I’m going Bad Lieutenant mode. – Israel
SMU at Clemson – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network
How are we feeling, Clemson fans? Is it no longer over? Are you so back? You’re at least back to .500 after beating teams you’re supposed to, and technically you’re heading into another expected W. However, I actually think SMU can win this game, so long as they follow Syracuse's blueprint. Aggressive play-calling is the key, and how willing the Mustangs are to do that should dictate the way this game goes. I wouldn't trust Cade Klubnik to throw out my trash, but he’s probably gained some confidence over the last few weeks, and he probably remembers beating SMU soundly in the ACC Championship game last year. For SMU's sake, here's hoping they remember that too. – Israel
Penn State at Iowa – Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET on Peacock
One of the funnier things about Penn State’s losing streak was that they hadn’t even gotten to the hard part of their schedule yet. Let’s see if removing the tight-ass coach loosens up the team out there. Let's also see if the backup has any chance of getting this team back afloat, though with a name like Ethan Grunkemeyer, I don’t have a lot of hope. – Israel
Maryland at UCLA – Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET on FS1
Maryland emerges out of Big Ten Network purgatory for a moment, despite losing their last two games in pretty shameful fashion. Unfortunately for them, they now have to face off against the hottest 2-4 team in college football. Malik Washington is arguably as talented as Nico Iamaleava, but Iamaleava has the experience and Maryland cannot seem to figure out how to close out games. They’re getting so bad at it that the Baltimore Ravens are starting to feel nervous that someone's coming for their spot. I am not convinced UCLA can keep this good times train going for much longer, but it wouldn’t be much of a shock if they keep it going for at least another week. — Israel
USC at Notre Dame – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
This is supposed to be the last meeting for this historic rivalry, since USC already has all the tough games per year it wants, but that’s only a problem for the alums who still think Lou Holtz was a good idea. More to the point, this is more a reputation game than a real thing in the new top-heavy college game. Notre Dame will be tested by the USC triumvirate of quarterback Jayden Maiava, running back Waymond Jordan and receiver Makai Lemon, while the Irish need a win to keep their back-door pass into the playoff active (a third loss makes it harder for the committee to justify the thing this system was built to guarantee). This isn’t Tennessee-Alabama, but your old uncle Ned can have it for nostalgia. — Ray
Tennessee at Alabama – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
The more things change. After weeks of everyone eating each other’s faces, we somehow ended up where we always end up, with Alabama being the top team in the SEC. The FSU loss is looking more and more like a fluke. As long as Ty Simpson has a clean pocket, he’s a Heisman-level QB, and he’s had very clean pockets for the last few weeks.
And yet, I continue to believe that this team is very gettable. Tennessee already blew one of their proverbial monkey-on-the-back games by letting Georgia come back and win; are they destined to do it again against Bama? Or have they learned their lesson? I’ll remind you all that exiled quarterback Nico Iamaleava currently has more wins against top-10 teams (1) than this Tennessee team. You can’t let that stand, Joey Aguilar. You can’t abide by that, Josh Heupel. You gotta show that you’re the catch in this breakup. – Israel
Utah at BYU – Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on CBS
You don’t actually need to watch this but if you’re near Provo, you should try to get a ticket only to watch your face when you see that the secondary market has this price as north of $300. BYU is 6-0, Utah is 5-1, and BYU running back LJ Martin is worth a peek, but mostly this is the kind of intrastate rivalry that has been devalued in the new order, so it’s good they both alit to the Big 12, the conference good enough to watch now but not quite good enough to care about in December. – Ray
Lafayette at Oregon State – Saturday, 10 p.m. ET on The CW
The classic matchup—insouciant I-AA team against the winless I-A team with a brand new coach trying to reinvent chicken salad. This is probably Oregon State’s best remaining chance to get off the schneid. This is also Robb Akey’s first game as interim coach after going 20-50 at Idaho, so he could use a little happy Fizzies party before the grim stuff resumes. – Ray
Florida State at Stanford – Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
You couldn’t even get ME to watch this game. – Israel
