Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
Ray: Good news for SEC teams across the land: The next coach at LSU is almost certainly going to be a spectacular failure. This news comes after Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry suggested, and probably not tongue-in-cheek, that "Maybe we'll let President Trump pick it. He loves winners.” This came in a presser in which he also announced that soon-to-be-no-longer athletic director Scott Woodward, whose last two football hires totaled $124 million in buyouts, would not be picking Brian Kelly’s doomed successor, adding, “We're gonna put metrics on it because I'm tired of rewarding failure in this country and then leaving the taxpayers to foot the bill." Ignoring the fact that Jeffy was deeply involved in the process when the Kelly contract was negotiated, this leads to the obvious conundrum: If you had only Trump, Landry or Woodward to pick your next coach, how soon would it be before you shut down the program? However badly it plays, it’s all good news at the other 15 campuses—even Kentucky.
Oh, and since the ratings designations you asked for went over so big last week (and by “went over” we mean “nobody noticed”), we are moving this week to RealTimeRPI.com, which is more of a basketball rating site, but hey, any time someone has a list that puts Delaware (19) above Michigan (20) and Texas (23), we have to honor it for its sheer brass. The Blue Hens are also above LSU (33), which has to pay Kelly only $5 million less than Delaware’s entire athletic department budget. And for three, they’re the Blue Hens, for Christ’s sake. But there’s also this: North Dakota State hammered South Dakota State 38-7 in our Downmarket Game Of The Week, and RealTimeRPI has South Dakota State ranked 75th and North Dakota State 85th. This is a computer that must be respected for more than just a rogue Delaware call.
Israel: We have written many words about coaches getting fired, so some of this might feel repetitive, but I genuinely think everyone needs to stop losing their damn minds over all these firings. It is true that there’s never been this many mid-season firings in one year, but at the same time, do any of these shit-cannings seem at all unfair? OAN Mike Gundy? Big Game James Franklin?? Brian Kelly, maybe the most hated coach in all of college football, who also spent half his LSU tenure on vacation? It’s fine, guys. Really.
Frankly, I’m still expecting a few more axes to fall in the coming weeks. You don’t wanna fall behind in the canned-coach arms race out of some misguided sense of loyalty (*cough* Florida State *cough*). You schools gotta get on it.
And now, the games.
North Carolina (122) at Syracuse (80) – Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
The only way this is interesting is if we find out Bill Belichick has been the face card in a high-roller Sudoku game that cheats everyone at the table. Frankly, Memphis (26) at Rice (89) is a better game, and Sam Houston (164) at Louisiana Tech (56) at least has a team trying to win for the first time. Besides, Friday is Game 6 of the World Series, and as an added benefit does NOT have Bill Belichick. – Ray
Penn State (85) at Ohio State (1) – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on Fox
Fun fact: this is likely the last significant Ohio State (1) game before The Game against Michigan (20) at the end of the season. Penn State (85) is having the season from hell and they’re missing their starting quarterback, but they also have nothing to lose. Does that sound like they have any sort of chance? Well, I tried. Ohio State (1) is probably gonna rip their arms off and slap them with it. But hey, just remind yourself that James Franklin isn’t there anymore at least. – Israel
Miami (9) at SMU (51) – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
It’s time to get a fuller assessment of the ‘Canes, and SMU is just frisky enough, despite having an average offense below-average defense, to make Miami work harder than it did against Stanford (101) last week. Mario Cristobal has made this team his best in four seasons in Coral Gables, which means this would be the kind of loss that puts him on the currently depleted hot seat. – Ray
Vanderbilt (11) at Texas (23) – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
The best game of the week looks like a potential disappointment because Vandy has not yet outgrown its too-cute-to-be-believed stage, but it would be a hoot to see the Commodores win and force people have their second straight holy-shit moment this season—the first being Indiana (2) beating Oregon (8). Diego Pavia’s Heisman candidacy takes a huge leap with a good game, while Arch Manning ... well, he might end up being Matthew Caldwell after his concussion against Mississippi State. – Ray
Last week was a good win for the Longhorns. A stolen win, really. It’s the kind of thing that can turn a team like Texas’s fortunes around. But I still don’t believe, and as long as 40-year-old Diego Pavia plays well, Vandy should be able to bring these guys back down to Earth. – Israel
Navy (25) at North Texas (32) – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Army (73) at Air Force (110) – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+
Navy deserves to be thanked for its service based on being one of the last unbeaten teams, and North Texas remains one of the sport’s most dynamic offenses (first in points, fifth in yards per game). True-freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 608 yards against Charlotte (146), the 10th-highest total ever, though that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. The co-record-holder had 734 in 2016, and went on to do remarkably little afterward, other than be annoying insurance pitch man who goes by the name Patrick Mahomes. Navy only runs the ball (first in the country in yards gained, because quarterback Blake Horvath is also the leading rusher, eliminating the middleman almost entirely). As for Army and Air Force, they run even more than that (176 pass attempts total between them, which would rank them 124th as a combo plate), so you could watch the entirety of that game and still slip over to Vandy-Texas at halftime. – Ray
UAB (86) at UConn (76) – Saturday, 12:00 pm ET on CBSSN
Duke (47) at Clemson (88)– Saturday, 12:00 pm ET on ACC Network
UAB (86) got rid of Trent Dilfer and immediately beat a good Memphis (26) team. They must’ve really hated that guy. It’ll be interesting to see if that was merely a fluke or if there really is a good team hiding under there, one that had been held back by the other Ravens quarterback that Ray Lewis won a championship for.
As for Duke (47) and Clemson (88), Dabo Swinney should be shitting bricks right now as the grim reaper visits all these colleges to excise their problematic, jerkoff coaches. He could be that next jerkoff to fall. Especially when a capable Duke (47) team arrives to put the Tigers on their heels. I personally would not want my employment to be in the hands of Cade Klubnik, but that’s just me. – Israel
Guelph at Laurier – Saturday, 1 p.m. ET on some Canadian station
The Canadian college football semifinals, which is the equivalent of Buffalo (119) at Bowling Green (106) except for this: the Guelph Gryphons were 3-5 this year but somehow made the playoffs and beat Western in the first round last week on a walk-off rouge. Beat that shit, Ryan Day. Laurier is 7-1, seeded first, and hasn’t gotten remotely close to a win that interesting. Also, the CFL playoffs start Saturday in Vancouver and Montreal, two of the final five opportunities to see the sport before the owners ruin it with rampant and rampantly stupid Americanism, the rat bastards. – Ray
Indiana (2) at Maryland (74) – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Your doubts have been allayed. Indiana is now past being a hard out and closer to being Ohtani with plastic red helmets. The Hoosiers don’t face a team reasonably capable of beating them before the conference championship; after the Terps they go to Penn State (85), which was supposed to be a big game, Wisconsin (109), which used to be a formidable foe, and Purdue (120), which used to be an arch rival. Oh, well, maybe the Old Oaken Bucket still matters. – Ray
Georgia (5) at Florida (58) – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
It’s time for Florida-Georgia week. The world’s largest outdoor cock fight inside of a Jacksonville Waffle House or whatever they call this game already has a demerit, as Florida has kicked its coach to the curb. There’s no reason to believe Georgia (5) won’t do what they always do to their competition and come out victorious. Florida’s (58) only hope is that Donovan was such a drag that the Gators have renewed energy just by his erasure. Maybe if you play well, Florida, you’ll finally get Lane Kiffin to throw a little wink your way. He’s a tease like that. As for Gunner Stockton, he’s playing for something personal: his grandpappy’s legacy. A man whose last words were complaining about Todd Grantham deserves a win after all. – Israel
Virginia (15) at Cal (69) – Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Virginia (15) should’ve lost two weeks in a row now. They are due for a heartbreaking loss to bring down this house of cards and I’m calling it now. Cal (69) isn’t a particularly good team but they can play tough, especially against a Virginia that seems to play down to its competition, or else to just not be capable of maintaining excellence from week to week. – Israel
Oklahoma (17) at Tennessee (16) – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
The games are not gonna get any easier for Oklahoma (17), but if they’re going to win a game during this stretch of the season, this is the one. Tennessee (16) is good but certainly looks a little funny in the light. They could really use a dynamic quarterback, which only would’ve cost a few million dollars like that one guy at UCLA (87). No one knows if John Mateer is actually healthy, and they’re starting to blame Brent Venables for bringing him back too early, but he's a man who's coaching to keep his job, and I can’t say I don’t understand. Oklahoma needs this game even more than Tennessee does. SEC football, baby! – Israel
Kentucky (113) at Auburn (65) – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network
I halfway think playing this game should be illegal. I’m going to watch it like it's the tape from The Ring. – Israel
Washington State (54) at Oregon State (130) – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS
The de facto Pac-2 championship, which won’t be repeated next year because the conference is re-inflating with a bunch of new non-Pacific Ocean-adjacent members. That sounds desperate, but at least they have more dignity than to take UCLA back. – Ray
USC (28) at Nebraska (40) – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Has anyone gone from wunderkind to also-ran faster than Lincoln Riley? In the face of programs thinking they can do better than their coach, or coaches thinking they can do better than their programs, heed the lesson of Riley. Riley, like so many Middle Americans who believe that their specialness was stymied in their places of origin, came to California with big dreams, but quickly found that he was no Hollywood star. Riley has underachieved in his tenure, but—outside of the Caleb Williams years—not in a way that’s even worth remembering. His teams are just kinda there, and he’s about to play Nebraska (40), another team that’s just kinda there, in a game that will most likely be kinda just on. The only difference is that Matt Rhule still has a chance at another big job after this and Riley might be headed to NFL offensive-coordinator purgatory if this doesn’t work out. – Israel
Cincinnati (18) at Utah (24) – Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
A sneaky-good game for insomniacs, burglars, bartenders and people waiting for their spouses to make bail. Utah’s two losses have been to Texas Tech (14), which has one loss, and BYU (10), which has none. Plus, the idea of Cincinnati playing at altitude makes us interested in how we view them in either victory or defeat. – Ray
The Return Of The MACtion – next Tuesday & Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This used to happen more often, and the conference that took over Tuesdays has been reduced to Tuesdays in November because Conference USA took Tuesdays and Wednesdays in October for some reason. Anyway, it’s back, albeit in truncated form, with Miami (Ohio) (79) at Ohio (66) and UMass (170) at Akron (125) playing simultaneously on Tuesday, while Kent State (126) at Ball State (129) and Northern Illinois (148) at Toledo (108) go at it on Wednesday. If you don’t know who’s in charge of snacks, it’s you. – Ray
Added Rolling Misery Note: Oberlin, which we told you about last week as the worst team in the U.S. even though the current Versus Sports Simulator ranks the Yeomen a lofty 209th out of 230 Division III schools for some reason, lost (No Yo!) at home to Wittenberg, 52-0, and is now 0-7 with a points difference of minus-402 (29-431). This week, they take a 2.5-hour trip to treacherous North Coast Conference arch-rival Denison, which is 4-3. The showoffs. – Ray
