We’re just a few days away from the most important presidential election of our lifetimes, and each hour that passes brings increased uncertainty about what the outcome will be. Joe Biden’s overall polling lead remains strong, and most predictive models favor him to win. But memories of the 2016 polling errors, a new poll putting Donald Trump in the lead in Iowa, and concerning trends in black and brown voter turnout have cast further doubt onto Tuesday’s outcome.
Defector’s political analysts have been hard at work on their own models, and today we are happy to publish their findings:
There’s no way to predict exactly what will happen on Tuesday, but this should provide some much-needed clarity.